Redfin data shows 123% more sellers than buyers in September, giving mortgage brokers a fresh negotiating edge with clients
The US condo market swung firmly toward buyers in September, with an estimated 123% more sellers than buyers nationwide. That's the widest gap in records going back to 2013, according to a new report from Redfin.
The shift marks a sharp departure from the pandemic homebuying surge. In September 2021, condo buyers outnumbered sellers by 25.1%; five years on, buyer volume has collapsed 54% while seller counts have risen 36%.
Active buyers fell to an estimated 88,460, down 2.5% from August and the lowest total in at least 13 years.
Sellers, meanwhile, reached 197,248, up 0.9% from the prior month.
“Buyers have more options and a better chance of finding a place they like,” said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin.
“Although condo prices and HOA fees remain relatively high, buyers have more room to negotiate price cuts, and condos are still generally more affordable than single-family homes.”
Rising HOA costs and lending rules complicate the picture
For mortgage brokers advising first-time buyers, the conditions come with caveats.
Rising insurance premiums, homeowners association (HOA) fees, and special assessments are bearing down on the condo segment far more heavily than on single-family homes — particularly in Florida and Texas, where hurricane risks have driven insurance costs sharply higher.
As the growing HOA fee burden has been squeezing affordability in major cities, brokers are increasingly on the front lines of educating buyers about total monthly cost, not just purchase price.
Matt Schulz, chief consumer finance analyst at LendingTree, told Mortgage Professional America that HOA costs catch buyers off guard.
“HOA fees are not necessarily the first thing or even on the short list of things that immediately come to mind,” Schulz said.
“But if you’re talking about $500 a month, or even cut that in half, talking about $250 a month, that’s a significant number on top of the rest of your mortgage payment.”
Underwriting changes are compounding the picture. Kimber White, president of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers (NAMB) and a Florida-based broker for whom condo loans represent more than 50% of his origination volume, warned in March that Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)-mandated changes to condo project review standards risk eliminating many buildings from government-sponsored enterprise (GSE)-eligible financing.
“The full condo review is going to absolutely show that there are not 10% reserves, which automatically is going to throw all these condos out of being able to qualify,” White told Mortgage Professional America.
Jacy Bloom, Owner and Mortgage Broker at Bloom Mortgage Solutions, says new condo financing requirements are pushing more buyers toward non-QM loans as more buildings fall outside conventional lending guidelines. https://t.co/wxngjhImnB
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) November 2, 2026
Texas leads the buyer’s market surge
The surplus is sharpest across the Sun Belt, which accounts for nine of the ten metros where sellers most heavily outnumber buyers.
San Antonio posted the widest gap among the 50 most populous US metro areas, an estimated 459% more sellers than buyers in September.
Houston followed at 322%, Miami at 274%, and Austin at 258%.
“San Antonio condos may have an attractive purchase price, but buyers are looking at the total monthly payment. Because we have so many affordable single-family homes available, many buyers choose a house when the payments are close,” said Derrell Skillman, a Redfin Premier agent in San Antonio, Texas.
The national median condo sale price declined 0.8% year over year to roughly $339,000 in September, the first annual dip in five months.
About 37% of condos sold included a price reduction, up from 16% five years earlier, and the typical unit spent 63 days on market. That backdrop lands as pending home sales hit record lows in September, pointing to a broader buyer hesitancy that the condo segment is bearing disproportionately.
For mortgage brokers whose first-time buyer clients have been sidelined by high prices and mortgage rates entrenched above 7%, this may be the clearest buying window in years.
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