Morning Briefing: RBA grapples with uncertain job market, accelerating housing

The Reserve Bank is struggling to gauge the strength of the labor market and its implications for inflation... World’s biggest property binge is coming to a city near you...

RBA grapples with uncertain job market, accelerating housing 
(Bloomberg) -- The Reserve Bank is struggling to gauge the strength of the labor market and its implications for inflation while house prices on the east coast accelerate.

At the same time, the RBA said in minutes of its Nov. 1 meeting in Sydney Tuesday that the risks to the global inflation outlook “were more balanced than they had been for some time.” That follows a rebound in commodity prices and faster forecast growth in major advanced economies.

“Considerable uncertainty remained about the strength of labor market conditions and the implications for labor cost growth,” the RBA said after leaving the cash rate at a record-low 1.5 percent. It added “the overall assessment was that the risks around the inflation forecast were broadly balanced.”

Australia is struggling with weak inflation that policy makers only expect to reach the bottom of their 2-3 percent target at the end of 2018. While unemployment has fallen, most of the jobs growth has come from part-time work and the jobless rate of 5.6 percent is flattered by falling participation.

 
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World’s biggest property binge is coming to a city near you
(Bloomberg) -- If they were anywhere else in Beijing, the five young women in cowboy hats and matching red, white, and blue costumes would look wildly out of place.

But here at the city’s biggest international property fair -- a frenetic gathering of brokers, developers and other real estate professionals all jockeying for the attention of Chinese buyers -- the quintet of wannabe Texans fits right in. As they promote Houston townhouses (“Yours for as little as $350,000!”), a Portugal contingent touts its Golden Visa program and the Australian delegation lures passersby with stuffed kangaroos.

Welcome to ground zero for the world’s largest cross-border residential property boom. Motivated by a weakening yuan, surging domestic housing costs and the desire to secure offshore footholds, Chinese citizens are snapping up overseas homes at an accelerating pace. They’re also venturing further afield than ever before, spreading beyond the likes of Sydney and Vancouver to lower-priced markets including Houston, Thailand’s Pattaya Beach and Malaysia’s Johor Bahru.

The buying spree has defied Chinese government efforts to restrict capital outflows and shows little sign of slowing after an estimated $15 billion of overseas real estate purchases in the first half. For cities in the cross-hairs, the challenge is to balance the economic benefits of Chinese demand against the risk that rising home prices spur a public backlash.

“The Chinese have managed to accumulate very large amounts of wealth, and the opportunities to deploy that capital in their own market are somewhat restricted,” said Richard Barkham, the London-based chief global economist at CBRE Group Inc., the world’s largest commercial property brokerage. “China has more than a billion people. Personally, I think we have just seen a trickle.”