For incumbents, managing rising costs might be the key to re-election, according to a new study
The mounting costs of debt and mortgages might prove to be the decisive factor in the next election, according to a new poll by Abacus Data.
The survey found that if a federal election was held today, 39% of Canadian voters would vote Conservative, while 26% would go for the Liberals, 18% for the NDP, and 5% for the Greens.
Among those who are not supporting the incumbent federal administration, one in three said that they would be more likely to re-elect the Liberals if mortgage interest rates begin to fall.
Another one in three also said that they would be more likely to vote Liberal if Justin Trudeau was no longer the Liberal leader, while 40% say they would be more likely to vote Liberal if the economy improved.
“About one in three said they would be more likely to vote Liberal if it became clear Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives were likely to win the next election or if they felt uncomfortable with Pierre Poilievre as Prime Minister,” Abacus Data said.
These findings “offer the Liberals some hope that they could rebuild their winning coalition, but there’s no clear silver bullet, including the Prime Minister stepping down as leader before the next election,” the pollster added. “It’s likely a combination of these will need to happen to overcome the desire for change people are feeling.”
RBC Economics study shows Canadian spending slowing due to debt pressures. While spending is steady, early signs of weakness coincide with a slight unemployment rate increase.https://t.co/r5amlMW8vO#mortgagenws #mortgageindustry #householddebt #economy
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) August 11, 2023
How are Canada’s major political leaders faring?
The study found that the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre has seen a marked improvement in his overall image, with 40% of respondents have a positive view of Poilievre versus 32% who have a negative view for a net favourable rating of +8. These metrics indicate that at present, Pierre Poilievre is the most popular leader in Canada, Abacus Data said.
Conversely, Canadians’ impressions of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau remained “decidedly negative”, with 29% of respondents having a positive view compared to 53% having a negative view for a net favourable impression of -24.
Abacus Data said that among those with a positive impression of Trudeau (29%), 64% are voting Liberal, while 18% will go NDP and 7% will go Conservative. Among those with a neutral view of the Prime Minister (15%), 26% are voting Liberal, while 22% will go Conservative and 39% will go NDP.
The strongest sentiments were found to be among those with a negative view of Trudeau (53%), of which 63% are voting Conservative, 14% NDP, and 3% Liberal.
