Lower rates, longer amortizations, and stable prices help build momentum after a sluggish year
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) is forecasting a stronger housing market heading into 2025, with residential sales expected to pick up across the province.
Home sales in British Columbia are projected to increase by 2.6% this year to 75,000 units. In 2025, that growth is expected to accelerate, with sales forecasted to rise by 13% to reach 84,500 units.
“Following two pretty challenging years for sales, it looks like markets across BC are starting to build momentum,” BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson said in the report.
He noted that falling mortgage rates, along with policy changes supporting first-time buyers with longer amortization options and higher mortgage insurance caps, are helping to revitalize market activity.
Although there was a notable increase in new listings this year, Ogmundson explained that this trend was largely a result of slow sales throughout 2024. With active listings stabilizing at healthier levels, the market should be able to handle the anticipated rise in sales without triggering a spike in prices.
BCREA anticipates the average home price in BC to increase by a modest 3.3% in 2025, following largely flat prices in 2024.
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The association’s recent report showed that 5,579 residential units were sold across the province in September, down 1% from the previous year. However, the average home price was down 2.8% year-over-year, sitting at $942,969 compared to $969,907 a year prior.
The overall sales dollar volume totalled $5.3 billion, down by 2.1% from the same time last year. Additionally, MLS unit sales in BC were 25% below the 10-year September average.
Ogmundson pointed out that falling mortgage rates haven’t had the same impact across all regions.
“Thus far, falling mortgage rates have not had the expected impact on home sales,” he said. “That said, there has been interesting regional variation with markets on Vancouver Island and in the North recording more historically normal activity while the Lower Mainland and parts of the Interior lag behind.”
Year-to-date data reflects the slower pace seen earlier in 2024, with total residential sales dollar volume down 3.2% at $56 billion compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales have dropped by 4.1%, reaching 57,069 units year-over-year, though the average MLS residential price has increased slightly by 1% to $981,393.
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