Workers express mounting uncertainty despite low layoff rates
Canadian workers are feeling less confident about their jobs, a sentiment not seen since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Net job security has plunged to 44.9%, its lowest level since May 2020, Bloomberg reported, citing the finding of a recent Nanos Research Group poll. Almost three in 10 Canadians (29%) now express unsure feelings about their job stability, up by 11 points in just under two months.
The net job security measure is calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents who feel their job is "somewhat not secure" or "not at all secure" from those who say it is "secure" or "somewhat secure."
Despite the rising unease, the majority of Canadians polled still express confidence they won't lose their jobs. 44% feel secure in their positions, with another 14% feeling somewhat secure. However, a combined 13% indicate feeling either somewhat insecure or not secure at all.
Brendon Bernard, a senior economist at Indeed.com, noted that current labour market data doesn't show a drastic decline in job security. Layoffs remain relatively low, and Indeed job postings are still higher than pre-pandemic levels. He suggested the downturn in sentiment may be driven by recent news coverage highlighting rising unemployment and business insolvencies.
Bernard pointed out that signs of labour market weakness are most visible among young workers. The employment rate for those aged 15 to 24 has fallen significantly to 55% in March.
In contrast, the employment rate for workers aged 25 to 54 remains strong at over 84%, highlighting a concerning gap in the job market.
“There’s a real dichotomy,” Bernard told Bloomberg.
The current level of perceived job insecurity is particularly striking, considering many economists predict a soft landing for the Canadian economy following recent interest rate hikes. It mirrors the sentiment following the catastrophic job losses of April 2020, when pandemic restrictions caused the worst single-month decline in employment in Canadian history.
According to the latest figures from Canada’s statistics agency, the country experienced a minor job loss in March, with 2,200 jobs disappearing, which pushed the unemployment rate up by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%. This was contrary to economic forecasts by Bloomberg, which had projected a job increase of 25,000 for the month.
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The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index, which has been tracking Canadians' sentiments on personal finances, job security, the economy, and real estate prices since 2008, is based on weekly surveys of about 250 Canadians. The results published are four-week rolling averages from 1,000 telephone responses, with a margin of error of about 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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