How accurate are immigration and growth estimates?
Canada’s population growth is likely to exceed current government forecasts despite new immigration restrictions, according to a new report from the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC).
In the analysis, CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal challenged recent projections by Statistics Canada, which estimate that the country’s population growth will slow considerably – dropping to 0.3% in 2025 and declining by 0.2% in 2026. Tal argued that these numbers are too conservative and based on miscalculations about temporary residents.
Tal stated that Statistics Canada is overestimating the number of people expected to leave the country once their visas expire, while also failing to properly account for holders of long-term visitor permits and underreporting the anticipated number of asylum seekers.
Once those factors are adjusted, Tal projected that Canada’s population growth will reach 1.1% in 2025 and remain close to 1% the following year – higher than official estimates.
This unexpected growth may further strain Canada’s already challenged housing sector, according to the report. Tal warned that the country risks repeating policy missteps made during the post-pandemic immigration surge, when population growth outpaced housing construction, aggravating the housing shortage.
“The housing crisis of the last decade was in many ways a planning issue as under-counting of population growth has resulted in a suboptimal increase in housing supply,” Tal wrote. “We fear that we are in a process of repeating past mistakes.”
Reduced immigration numbers
The federal government’s 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan, released in late 2024, forecasts a 0.2% decline in population growth in both 2025 and 2026, followed by 0.8% growth in 2027. According to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), the plan aims to “achieve well-managed, sustainable growth and economic prosperity for the long term.”
The plan reduces permanent resident targets by 105,000 admissions in 2025 compared with earlier projections. “More than 40% of anticipated permanent resident admissions in 2025 will be from those who are already in Canada as temporary residents,” the IRCC said. The plan also prioritizes “transitions of workers already here to permanent residents,” with a focus on economic immigration, including the Canadian Experience Class and regional programs in health care and trades.
In March 2024, the government introduced targets for temporary residents for the first time. According to the IRCC, the plan will “reduce temporary resident volumes to 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2026.” This includes student and worker caps and reforms to related programs.
The department noted that asylum claimants are not included in target calculations, stating they “are entitled by law to have their claim assessed so we can’t control the volumes as we do with other programs.”
Will Canada’s actual population growth outpace official projections? Share your insights below.
