Trade war instability drag March sales down, with prices also under pressure
Canada’s housing market reached a new low in March, as homebuyers continued to retreat amid mounting economic uncertainty and growing trade tensions, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
In its latest quarterly forecast, CREA revealed that national home sales fell 4.8% month-over-month in March. It marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline, pushing activity 20% below the recent peak recorded in November 2024. CREA attributed the drop primarily to homebuyers staying on the sidelines in response to unpredictable tariffs and broader economic headwinds.
“Up until this point, declining home sales have mostly been about tariff uncertainty. Going forward, the Canadian housing space will also have to contend with the actual economic fallout. In short order we’ve gone from a slam dunk rebound year to treading water at best,” said CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart.
The economic climate has forced CREA to make its largest mid-year forecast revision since the 2008–2009 financial crisis. The association noted that when it last released a forecast in January, it had not yet incorporated the full downside risks of an escalating trade war. That forecast had anticipated a healthy recovery for the housing market in 2025, which now appears increasingly unlikely.
“Amid ongoing unpredictability and given the fact that it is still far from clear what interest rates will do this year amid a potential stagflation, all forecasts continue to be subject to unprecedented levels of uncertainty,” the association said in its report.
CREA now expects 482,673 residential properties to be sold through Canadian MLS® Systems in 2025, essentially flat from 2024, reflecting a 0.02% decline. This marks a sharp downgrade from the 8.6% increase projected earlier this year.
In March, the national non-seasonally adjusted average home price stood at $678,331, representing a 3.7% drop from March 2024. In 2025, the average home price is forecast to decline 0.3% year-over-year to $687,898 in 2025, nearly $30,000 lower than January’s projection. Home prices in 2026 are expected to see a modest recovery, rising 1.2% year-over-year to an average of $696,074.
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Provincially, British Columbia and Ontario are both expected to see slight average price declines, while projected gains in other provinces have been pared back to the 3% to 5% range. CREA noted that while some regional markets remain more resilient, the broader national picture continues to soften.
Looking ahead to 2026, CREA predicts a 2.9% increase in national home sales, reaching 496,487 units. However, that figure would still fall short of the 500,000-unit benchmark for a fourth consecutive year. Since 2007, national home sales have surpassed that level only seven times.
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