Sales fall while affordability improves—what's next?
Home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) dropped by 23.1% in March as more properties entered the market, contributing to lower prices compared with the previous year, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).
TRREB reported that 5,011 homes were sold in March, down from 6,519 a year earlier. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales also declined by 2.4% from February. Meanwhile, new listings surged to 17,263, marking a 28.6% increase compared with last year.
Jason Mercer, TRREB’s chief market analyst, attributed the slowdown in sales to economic uncertainty, particularly concerning ongoing trade issues and the approaching federal election. He noted that many prospective homebuyers are taking a “wait-and-see” approach.
“If trade issues are solved or public policy choices help mitigate the impact of tariffs, home sales will likely increase,” Mercer stated in a press release. “Homebuyers need to feel their employment situation is solid before committing to monthly mortgage payments over the long term.”
The trade uncertainty follows a recent announcement by US president Donald Trump confirming that a 25% tariff on imported vehicles would include those produced in Canada, despite the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement, a report from The Canadian Press highlighted. Canada’s steel and aluminum industries also remain subject to 25% tariffs.
Despite the decline in sales, TRREB president Elechia Barry-Sproule remained optimistic, noting that affordability has improved over the past year.
“Home ownership has become more affordable, and we expect further interest rate cuts this spring,” she said. “Buyers will also benefit from increased choice, giving them greater negotiating power.”
The average selling price in March fell by 2.5% from the previous year to $1,093,254, while the composite benchmark price, which represents the typical home, declined 3.8% year-over-year.
Sales declined across all property types in March. Detached homes experienced the most significant drop, with a 24.9% decrease in sales, followed closely by condominiums at 23.5% and townhouses at 23.2%. Semi-detached home sales fell by 15.9%.
In the City of Toronto, sales declined by 16.9%, with 1,908 transactions recorded. Meanwhile, in the broader GTA, home sales fell by 26.5% to 3,103 transactions.
TRREB officials anticipate a potential market rebound as economic conditions stabilize and consumer confidence improves. However, the extent of recovery remains dependent on economic policies and trade developments in the months ahead.
What are your thoughts on the current state of the GTA housing market? Share your insights in the comments below.
