Migration to smaller centres and suburbs on the rise
Canadian home prices per square foot have largely remained stable in the first half of 2024, but noteworthy trends emerged in smaller communities and suburbs.
A new CENTURY 21 survey showed little change in prices per square foot of properties sold in nearly 50 communities between January 1 and June 30.
The report indicates that prices in Ontario, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada remained largely flat this year. There were gains in some smaller markets and suburbs, while downtown condo prices declined, reflecting a continued migration away from urban cores.
Alberta saw significant price increases in several markets, including Calgary and Edmonton, though prices per square foot there remain lower than in British Columbia, Quebec, and Ontario. In Calgary, condo prices rose by more than 17%, and in Edmonton by nearly 10%. High River led the increases with over 22%, reaching $285 per square foot.
By comparison, Calgary's price per square foot was $421, downtown Vancouver's $1,113 (down 1.7%), downtown Toronto's $706 (down 4.5%), and downtown Montreal's $672 (down 11.9%). Vancouver continues to have the highest prices in Canada, while the Prairies and Atlantic Canada are the most affordable.
Even with some recent declines, prices have not fallen below 2021 levels in any surveyed market. According to the survey, 2021 saw significant price surges during COVID-19, setting new benchmarks across the country. Generally, prices remain well above pre-pandemic averages.
Sales volumes have decreased compared to the brisk market of 2021 and 2022, especially in larger cities.
“A number of our brokers are experiencing a slower market when compared to the conditions of just two years ago,” said Todd Shyiak, executive vice president of CENTURY 21 Canada. “While across the Prairies and Atlantic provinces the market is quite active and balanced, increasing inventory and hesitant buyers in the GTA and the Lower Mainland (Vancouver and area) are resulting in a 'wait and see' market. With the next possible rate cut coming on July 24 buyers may be extending their 'wait and see' approach until the fall.”
Shyiak noted that inventory and interest rates would likely play significant roles in future prices, as sellers might delay listing their homes in response to cautious buyers waiting for lower rates.
“Ultimately, we don’t know what the next six months holds for our housing prices, but it’s important not to get too focused on any single year and look at each data point within the larger context of ever-evolving trends. That’s why this survey becomes more valuable year-over-year, because it allows us to see the big picture of Canadian housing,” he added.
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