Interprovincial migration will make itself apparent in the housing market soon, analysts say
Alberta’s population numbers have seen a significant boost from inbound migration, according to Statistics Canada.
During the second quarter, Alberta saw the arrival of 37,122 interprovincial migrants, while 27,265 people departed the province. Ontarians accounted for much of the Q2 gain, while Canadians from BC, Saskatchewan, the Yukon, and Manitoba also gravitated towards Alberta, StatCan said.
This represented Alberta’s largest net population gain since Q2 2014, ATB Financial said in its analysis of the StatCan figures.
Between “the third quarter of 2015 and early 2021, we lost about almost 50,000 people to other parts of the country,” ATB deputy chief economist Rob Roach told CBC News. “Since then, we’ve gained in total about 21,000-22,000. So we’re making up for the ground that we lost, really, when our economy was suffering from the recession.”
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“When times are good, with high oil prices, we tend to consistently see big inflows into the province, and these numbers are consistent with that,” added Trevor Tombe, economist at the University of Calgary.
The trend will definitely make itself apparent in the housing sector.
“No question: When you have an increase in an area’s population, then you’re going to have an increase in demand for housing,” Tombe said. “We would expect this would manifest itself in the form of, if not higher rents, [then] lower vacancies, and a more competitive rental market. It also has implications for the price of homes.”
However, the region’s volatility over the past decade or so should remain a cause for concern.
“If oil prices decline as they have in recent months, we could see a very quick reversal of the pattern,” Tombe said.
