Economists say data tells a different story from tariff headlines
Concerns around tariffs and economic uncertainty may be casting a shadow over British Columbia’s housing market this spring, but economists say it’s too soon to blame trade tensions for the province’s softer housing outlook — especially when other factors like interest rates and buyer psychology are playing bigger roles.
Andrew Lis, director of economics and data analytics at Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR), said the attention around US-Canada trade tensions is understandable, but the data doesn't back up the idea that tariffs are dragging the market down.
“From a purely statistical standpoint, there’s not really much to the story around the uncertainty from tariffs and so on, but it’s hard to ignore,” Lis said. “It’s front and centre in the media, and I think it’s captured the attention of a lot of people.”’
In a March 12 analysis for GVR, Lis looked at the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for Canada, a measure based on the volume of news articles discussing economic policy uncertainty. The index has spiked 432% from October 2024 to February 2025, its highest level ever.
However, Lis said there’s “very, very little, almost no correlation whatsoever” between the index and home sales in Greater Vancouver.
“There isn’t really much to back up that story. The story being that tariffs are the thing that’s weighing down everything,” he said.
Instead, he and others point to interest rates and inflation concerns as more likely to shape the months ahead.
Rates soften spring activity
Brendon Ogmundson, chief economist at the British Columbia Real Estate Association, said if tariffs end up stoking inflation, the Bank of Canada’s ability to lower interest rates could be limited.
“[The central bank is] really worried about inflation and really worried about inflation expectations,” he told local publication Business in Vancouver.
With inflation expected to exceed the 2% target as long as tariffs are in place, “that really handcuffs what they can do and how much they can lower rates, so we may not get much more from the Bank of Canada,” Ogmundson said.
While sales are down, some realtors say the current market is giving buyers more flexibility to shop carefully, especially in segments like condos.
Adil Dinani, principal at The Dinani Group, Royal LePage West Real Estate Services, said many clients are being more selective.
“Growing up we got the trail mix, and you’d always go for like the coconut or the chocolate versus the almonds. That’s what buyers are doing,” he said.
He added that despite a slower market, there’s still steady interest in entry-level properties, and buyers are finding better access to desirable school catchments, buildings, and neighbourhoods.
Renters get relief
The rental market is also offering more breathing room. Andrew Charney, director of residential asset management at Peterson Group, said 2024 was a “slow year,” with rents dropping by 3–5% and vacancy rates doubling in some areas to around 2%.
Now, he says the market is starting to pick up again.
“I see the spring market actually starting to move. I think people are starting to take advantage of a lot of rental incentives,” Charney said.
Those incentives may include one month of free rent, discounted deposits, or perks like free parking and moving or internet service discounts.
According to GVR, 1,827 residential sales were recorded in Metro Vancouver in February, down 11.7% from the same month last year and 28.9% below the 10-year seasonal average.
At the same time, listings are rising. The 12,744 homes currently on the market represent a 32.3% increase over February 2024 and 36.4% above the region’s seasonal average.
Read more: Vancouver home sales decline in February
“Balanced market conditions typically bring a flatter price trajectory, and we’ve seen prices across all segments remain in a holding pattern for the past few months,” Lis said. “But with the active spring season just around the corner, it will be interesting to see whether buyers take advantage of some of the most favourable market conditions seen in years.”
Lis said market activity may still improve as spring progresses, depending on how buyers and sellers respond.
“Six months from now, we might look back and say [tariffs] probably didn’t have much of an impact on the market directly, other than through perhaps some kind of psychological element,” he said.
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