He’s at it again. The economist responsible for the most dire real estate prediction to date now believes the Canadian market is more overleveraged than America’s just prior to the economic crisis.
Hilliard MacBeth, portfolio manager and author of a recently released book about a Canadian real estate bubble, believes Canada’s market is in more at risk than America’s before 2008.
"Our bubble is bigger," Hilliard MacBeth, portfolio manager with Richardson GMP and author of When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash, told the CBC. "At seven per cent, our exposure as a percentage of total economic activity is higher, and then we've got this nationwide obsession with buying homes and condos."
According to MacBeth, U.S. investment in housing prior to its crash was six per cent of the total GDP.
Record-low interest rates are drawing Canadians to the market and driving up prices. But MacBeth is advising Canadians to hold off on purchasing for now.
"If they haven't bought yet, their best strategy is to save up more for a down payment, and wait for the housing bubble to burst," he said.
It’s an opinion that won’t sit well with most brokers.
MacBeth recently predicted a 40-50 per cent price correction for homes across Canada – a claim that was quickly refuted by industry professionals.
“Most people would not sell their homes if the market dropped by 40 or 50 per cent; instead they would choose to stay put,” Paul Hudson or Verico Riverside Mortgages wrote in response to the prediction. “It sounds like a great premise for a book for people who subscribe to conspiracy theories. I'm sure the author will garner a following from a handful of jaded people who don't own real estate.”
"Our bubble is bigger," Hilliard MacBeth, portfolio manager with Richardson GMP and author of When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash, told the CBC. "At seven per cent, our exposure as a percentage of total economic activity is higher, and then we've got this nationwide obsession with buying homes and condos."
According to MacBeth, U.S. investment in housing prior to its crash was six per cent of the total GDP.
Record-low interest rates are drawing Canadians to the market and driving up prices. But MacBeth is advising Canadians to hold off on purchasing for now.
"If they haven't bought yet, their best strategy is to save up more for a down payment, and wait for the housing bubble to burst," he said.
It’s an opinion that won’t sit well with most brokers.
MacBeth recently predicted a 40-50 per cent price correction for homes across Canada – a claim that was quickly refuted by industry professionals.
“Most people would not sell their homes if the market dropped by 40 or 50 per cent; instead they would choose to stay put,” Paul Hudson or Verico Riverside Mortgages wrote in response to the prediction. “It sounds like a great premise for a book for people who subscribe to conspiracy theories. I'm sure the author will garner a following from a handful of jaded people who don't own real estate.”
