The segment should brace itself for the impact of imminent rate increases by the central bank, according to a Macquarie markets observer
Among the under-discussed aspects of the Canadian housing industry’s part in the national economy are the the fees associated with home purchase and sale transactions, which by any measure outstrip the combined contributions of the agriculture, fishing, forestry and hunting segments.
According to Statistics Canada, industry fees such as inspection costs, legal expenses, land transfer taxes, and real estate commissions constitute 1.9 per cent of the gross domestic product. Meanwhile, the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industries constitute 1.6 per cent of GDP.
“It’s really concerning, it’s really unhealthy,” Macquarie analyst David Doyle told CBC News.
Doyle noted that the strengthened influence of real estate fees on the national economy can be traced to the prolonged reign of ultra-low interest rates. The analyst warned that serious negative consequences of these developments are just beyond the horizon, especially with the central bank beginning to increase rates once more.
“The drag on the economy that’s going to flow from [higher rates], I think, will prove to be much more severe than it’s been in the past,” Doyle stated.
“The economy is just that much more reliant on housing and in particular on these ownership transfer costs,” he added. “It’s not something that, as an economy, you would look at as a position we want to be in.”
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According to Statistics Canada, industry fees such as inspection costs, legal expenses, land transfer taxes, and real estate commissions constitute 1.9 per cent of the gross domestic product. Meanwhile, the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industries constitute 1.6 per cent of GDP.
“It’s really concerning, it’s really unhealthy,” Macquarie analyst David Doyle told CBC News.
Doyle noted that the strengthened influence of real estate fees on the national economy can be traced to the prolonged reign of ultra-low interest rates. The analyst warned that serious negative consequences of these developments are just beyond the horizon, especially with the central bank beginning to increase rates once more.
“The drag on the economy that’s going to flow from [higher rates], I think, will prove to be much more severe than it’s been in the past,” Doyle stated.
“The economy is just that much more reliant on housing and in particular on these ownership transfer costs,” he added. “It’s not something that, as an economy, you would look at as a position we want to be in.”
Related stories:
Inflamed housing segment endangering Canadian financial system, BoC warns
New home market unfazed by housing policies
