The result is expected to have a big impact on the mortgage industry
Canadians with their eyes trained to the south will need to continue peering into the fog for at least another several hours, as the 2020 US election remains undecided.
As of 9:00 EST, the presidential, Senate and House races broke down as follows:
- Donald Trump – 213 electoral college votes; 66,859,610 total votes
- Joe Biden – 238 electoral college votes; 69,141,253 total votes
- Senate – Democrats: 45 seats, Republicans: 47
- House – Democrats: 189 seats, Republicans: 181
Much of the attention generated by this year’s election has focused on the acute differences between Trump’s and Biden’s personalities, philosophies, and approaches to the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving most to speculate about what a win by either candidate would mean for the Canadian economy and housing market.
Recent search data from Royal LePage showed a drastic increase – 116% – in American traffic to the company’s website between October 01 and 22, with Ontario, British Columbia, Alberta and Quebec being the most frequently searched locations. With the US-Canada border still closed to inessential travel, and immigration to Canada being a drawn-out process for most who apply, the likelihood of a wave of American buyers remains low. Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper described the activity as “voyeurism or window shopping.”
It has been theorized that a Biden win may be more advantageous for the overall health of the US, and therefore, the Canadian economy. His plan to increase corporate tax rates could make doing business in Canada a more attractive option. Biden’s infrastructure plan, which includes building two million affordable housing units, could benefit Canadian manufacturers that supply goods for the construction industry. A Biden victory could also theoretically grease the wheels for another round of COVID-19 financial relief, bringing more predictability to the US economy. Considering the gridlock that seized negotiations between Congress and the Senate throughout the summer, a Biden win would presumably require the House and Senate to be under Democrat control as well.
A Trump win, coupled with wins in the House and Senate, could also bring its own form of stability. With the Democrat-Republican ideological divide having widened into a canyon, and few Democratic bills receiving a hearing in the Senate, a Republican Congress would theoretically have the ability to pass bills more quickly, allowing the President’s vision for the economy to become reality with less partisan friction and uncertainty for the country’s trade partners.
Trump has also been vocal about his support for the oil industry. His positive view of the Keystone XL pipeline and embargo against Iranian oil, which keeps over a million barrels a day of the country’s product offline, could benefit both Alberta’s oil producers and its sluggish real estate market.
