Market players weigh in on their thoughts for New Zealand's property market in the year ahead

The new year is in full swing, and so is New Zealand's property market. But reviews on what's to come in the next 12 months are mixed.
New Zealand's official cash rate dropped to new lows of 4.25% last November — the lowest it's been since November 2022. This might be prompting more people to buy, also increasing opportunities for advisers. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hinted at another rate cut during its upcoming February meeting. At the same time, inflation reached 2.2% in September, the lowest it's been since March 2021 and within RBNZ's 1% to 3% target inflation range.
But headwinds persist and some market players are skeptical of another rate cut. There's also the high unemployment rate – at 4.8% in the September 2024 quarter – and increasing cost of living.
The New Zealand Adviser rounded up thoughts from a few key players in the property market to hear their thoughts on the year ahead.
Alexander McAlpine
Auckland-based adviser at Vega Mortgages
"There's a lot more confidence in the market as rates are dropping and we're expecting them to keep dropping. People who weren't looking to buy before are now looking to buy. That means there's a lot more owner-occupied and first time homebuyers. Also, we're seeing a lot more investors, people from other parts of New Zealand, who are looking to buy a second property."
Elyce Peters
Christchurch-based co-founder and managing director of The Mortgage Girls (pictured above left)
"There are a lot of positives in the market right now. Builds are starting to pick up; there are a lot of buy-sell deals in the market. It's a great time for first time buyers. The market is good right now, but not too hot. I don't think there will be any massive increases or decreases. But there's a lot of confidence in the market. And when you build a lot of confidence in the market people are buying more."
Kris Pedersen
Auckland-based founder of Kris Pedersen Mortgages (pictured above centre)
"We're the busiest that we've ever seen. I don't think the market will go ballistic, but it's definitely busier than it was before. Last year [in 2024], we finished the busiest we've ever been, since the peak in 2021. We've been swamped with inquiries ever since."
Campbell Smith
Auckland-based country head of NZ at non-bank lender Pepper Money
"The holiday season, typically linked to higher spending, presents both challenges and opportunities for those aiming to take charge of their financial future. Advisers have an excellent opportunity to proactively reach out to their clients to help them reassess their financial priorities and implement positive changes that can lead to long-term financial stability in the new year."
Lucia Xiao
Founder and adviser at Finax Mortgages, covering the New Zealand property market (pictured above right)
"Overall, the New Zealand property market in 2025 is set for a slow recovery, supported by lower mortgage rates and gradual adjustments in supply and demand dynamics. The primary catalyst for this recovery is the reduction in the official cash rate. During the last OCR announcement in November, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hinted at another 0.5% reduction scheduled for February 19. However, I remain skeptical, as such statements may be intended to influence public behavior. In addition, New Zealand’s economy remains fragile, with reduced confidence in the job market and lower tax revenues anticipated under a right-wing government committed to further public sector cuts. Despite these challenges, 2025 is expected to bring some relief for property owners as mortgage rates decrease. Homeowners transitioning from higher fixed rates will experience financial relief, which could improve market sentiment."
Michael Anastasiadis
Wellington-based mortgage adviser at Bozinoff Mortgages
"I think it's going to be a flat year. The economy here is not good. It could be a tale of two halves: there's an initial uplift in the first half from the summer. But I think it won't be good in the second half, especially here in Wellington. There's been a lot of government cuts. I don't think the housing prices are going to go down anytime soon; I don't see the [government] rules changing. Interest rates help those with mortgages. But it's not a game-changer. Those that can afford to buy are buying. And then there are those who still want to buy, but when you do the numbers, they can't. Now is a great time to buy. But why would you buy if you're worried about having a job in a few months? That's the reality in New Zealand. The economy is not in good shape. It's tough."