The bank previously expected net immigration would climb to about 20,000 in 2022
Kiwibank has predicted that people emigrating from New Zealand will outnumber immigrants arriving in the country by 20,000 this year.
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The state-owned bank expected the outflow to climb to a level only seen in 2011, when an Australian mining boom lured many workers to cross the ditch in search for six-figure salaries.
From its previously expected net immigration of about 20,000 in year as more migrants were attracted by the country’s tight labour market, Kiwibank has revised its forecast, now believing long-term departures would increasingly exceed arrivals over the rest of this year, Stuff reported.
If Kiwibank’s revised forecast proves to be on the money, this could drive a correction in the housing market and potentially deepen skills shortages in the labour market.
“The assurance that Kiwis moving overseas can return home without the need for MIQ is expected to rekindle the desire for the big ‘OE,’” it said. “Long-term arrivals in contrast will be held back by the gradual reopening of the border.”
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Kiwibank expects the net outflow to be relatively short term.
The bank said immigration is expected to outpace emigration once again towards the end of next year, once COVID restrictions are lifted on arrivals from China, India and South Africa, with net immigration predicted to then return to about 30,000 a year, Stuff reported.
“That's higher than the long-term average, but well down from pre-COVID highs,” the bank said.
