"We're pretty positive," he says

Basecorp Finance NZ chief financial officer John Moody (pictured) is feeling pretty positive about New Zealand's loan markets at the moment.
"We've [thought] for a long time that the fall in interest rates would generate increased business for not only ourselves, but also the wider sector. And that's coming true," Moody told New Zealand Adviser. "We've seen a pretty active last couple of months."
Moody's firm, a Hamilton-based non-bank lender, offers both residential and commercial loans. But increased activity is good news for both traditional and non-bank lenders, as well as advisers, as they navigate New Zealand's conflicting market forces. Among them are lower interest rates – and the possibility of more to come – which has increased both borrower capacity and confidence. At the same time, Kiwis are battling higher unemployment rates and falling property prices.
But Moody points to several tailwinds as signs of New Zealand's recovery.
"There seems to be a lot more investor interest back in the market, both in terms of inquiries and now settlements coming through. And we're seeing a bit more short-term activity, as well," he said. "It's clearly been a pretty tough non-bank environment. We've seen a couple of Australian non-bank lenders exit. But we're certainly here for the long haul. We're really encouraged by what we're seeing over the last six months. So when we think about 2025, we're pretty positive. Investors will be back in the market with strength. And I think you'll see a lot more transactions and hopefully a lot more business for us."
New Zealand Adviser caught up with Moody to hear some of his thoughts on different segments of the market. Moody's responses have been edited for content and clarity.
Investor interest on the rise
"Investment loans is an area that's been very subdued over the last 24 to 36 months. Now, I think investors have a lot more confidence to transact. I think that'll be the story of 2025. We're already seeing investors' share of transactions slowly increase. I think that'll increase further over the next 12 months. And that's really encouraging for the wider market."
Lower interest rates moving the market
"There's been more first-time homebuyers over the last couple of years. There are absolutely more transactions across both investors and first-home buyers. Many first-time buyers have been held up in the market over the last 12 months, particularly the lower end of the market. But as lower interest rates permeate across the economy, whether that's in the bank world, or with non-banks like ourselves, both categories will be active. But I think that you'll see a more pronounced effect with the return of investors in terms of absolute numbers. Investors are [more confident] with the lower interest rates and some of the regulatory changes, particularly around the removal of interest deductibility. And property traders are back in the market and have a bit more confidence around future values."
Non-banks growth in New Zealand
"We're anticipating the resumption of growth for ourselves and also the whole non-bank industry as rates continue to fall in 2025 and as property transactions pick up. We're a sales-led lender. We're typically used for property transactions rather than refinances, just because of the higher interest rates within our non-bank industry. So as you see a rising number of transactions, and as you see falling interest rates, we're certainly very positive about what's to come over the next six to 12 months."
The path forward
"If you look at the overall economy, there's been very few places to hide over the last 12 to 24 months. It's been a difficult period across many of the sectors in New Zealand. But when you look forward, particularly at lower interest rates, all across the economy we're pretty positive about our industry, that rise in economic activity and property market activity. But overall, within the economy, I think you'd expect a lot of sectors to also benefit similarly. There's increasing confidence that the bottom is here with property values, even if we're still seeing those slight declines in overall property prices. That gives a lot of confidence to investors generally that the future direction is up."