First-home buyers and investors lead activity in mixed property market
New Zealand’s property market shows a 16% year-on-year increase in October sales volumes, but overall activity remains 10–15% below seasonal norms, according to a new CoreLogic report.
The CoreLogic NZ November Housing Chart Pack showed that national property values have fallen for eight consecutive months, leaving prices 18% below their post-COVID peak.
Kelvin Davidson (pictured above), CoreLogic NZ’s chief property economist, attributed this to cautious buyer behaviour amid affordability challenges.
“The abundance of listings on the market is providing buyers with significant choice, allowing them to take their time and negotiate favourable deals,” Davidson said.
First-home buyers and investors boost market share
First-home buyers (FHBs) hit a new milestone in October, accounting for nearly 28% of purchases. Lower property prices, reduced competition, and tools like KiwiSaver withdrawals have supported their strong presence in the market.
Investors are also returning, with mortgaged multiple property owners making up 23% of transactions. Falling mortgage rates, easing loan-to-value ratio restrictions, and favorable tax conditions have encouraged renewed investor activity.
“Sometimes there’s a perception that it can only be one or the other. But we need both FHBs and investors to have a solid presence in the market, so the latest figures are encouraging,” Davidson said.
Challenges for owner-occupiers and the broader market
Relocating owner-occupiers remain hesitant, with long housing chains and tight budgets weighing on activity. However, Davidson predicts increased momentum as interest rates fall and market conditions stabilise.
“Movers are an important indicator of market confidence,” he said, adding that improved confidence could unlock stalled transactions.
Economic outlook signals Stabilisation
Despite OCR cuts and inflation returning to the Reserve Bank’s target range, Davidson warned against expecting a rapid market recovery. Elevated inventory, tighter credit conditions, and affordability challenges continue to limit growth potential.
With two-thirds of mortgages set to reprice in the next year, borrowers may find relief as rates ease, but Davidson cautioned, “A fresh boom seems unlikely,” CoreLogic reported.
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