Buyers return, but investor sell-offs keep market in check
The latest NZHL Property Report by economist Tony Alexander (pictured) highlighted a market still favouring buyers, despite a rise in activity.
While falling interest rates have encouraged more first-home buyers and some investors to return, FOMO (fear of missing out) remains low, and prices remain largely flat across most regions.
At the same time, a record net 32% of agents report an increase in investors looking to sell, and a near-record 68% of agents have seen a rise in property appraisal requests—signaling that more homes may be entering the market soon.
Auction and open home attendance sees modest gains
More potential buyers are attending property auctions, with 19% of agents reporting increased turnout, up from a five-month low of 10% in January.
Open home attendance has remained steady, with 43% of agents noting a rise in visitors.
While interest rate cuts have played a role in boosting market activity—with the OCR dropping a total of 175 basis points to 3.75% as of February—the impact seems stronger in motivating buyers to act rather than just browse listings, Alexander said.
Prices hold steady amid market uncertainty
Last month, more agents believed prices were falling, but in February, a net 1% of agents now believe prices are rising—a small shift that still indicates a flat pricing trend overall.
Buyer sentiment remains cautious, with no strong urgency to make purchases.
“Buyers can see that there are plenty of listings, an abundance of townhouses in some locations, and are not feeling all that confident about the economy and their personal finances,” Alexander said.
First-home buyers remain active, investor interest rebounds
First-home buyers continue to be a dominant force in the market, with 55% of agents reporting an increase in their presence—up from 48% in the previous month.
This trend has remained consistent since August, coinciding with the first interest rate cuts in this cycle.
Investor activity has also rebounded, with 27% of agents reporting more investors in the market, up from 12% last month. However, there is no rush among investors to buy quickly, and many still believe time is on their side.
More investors looking to sell
Despite some investors re-entering the market, a growing number are choosing to exit. A record net 32% of agents report more investors selling properties, citing market conditions and financial pressures.
This trend aligns with findings from Alexander’s separate survey of property investors.
Offshore interest remains weak
Interest from offshore buyers has remained low, with a net 7% of agents saying they are receiving fewer inquiries from buyers abroad. This reflects a lack of strong movement among overseas Kiwis looking to return home.
More sellers enter the market
Requests for property appraisals have surged, with a net 68% of agents seeing an increase—the second-highest level on record.
This suggests that more homeowners are preparing to list their properties, which could further boost housing supply in the coming months, Alexander said.
What’s worrying buyers?
The two biggest concerns among buyers remain job security and access to finance.
However, financing worries have declined, with only 37% of agents reporting this as a major concern—down from 48% last month and the lowest level since 2021.
At the same time, concerns over falling prices have increased, with 24% of agents noting this as an issue, up from 16% in November.
Outlook: Stability with more supply on the way
The property market remains steady but not booming. While buyer interest is growing, the surge in property listings—particularly from investors looking to sell—may keep price gains in check.
As more properties come onto the market, buyers continue to hold an advantage, but market conditions could shift depending on future interest rate cuts and economic developments, Alexander said.
