Over 80% of suburbs affected, says CoreLogic
CoreLogic NZ has revealed property values have plummeted in more than 80% of the nation’s suburbs.
New Zealand’s housing market downturn is in full swing, with most areas recording a fall in property values in the past three months.
Tauranga and Dunedin saw falls across the board while 97% of suburbs in Auckland and wider Wellington fell in value. In Christchurch, 92% of the city was impacted and 85% in Hamilton.
Across the country, in 81 suburbs median values fell by 5% or more, most notably in Auckland (14), Wellington (23) and Dunedin (17).
Read more: Why NZ's housing market downturn could be a "warning to the world"
CoreLogic NZ’s interactive Mapping the Market too analyses property data and provides insight into property values across cities and the country, as well as how values have shifted over time. In its latest update, 803 of the 955 New Zealand suburbs analysed recorded a fall in median values between June and September.
CoreLogic NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson (pictured above) confirmed the extent of the housing downswing and how much it had accelerated each quarter in 2022.
“We’ve seen signs of weakness gathering pace this year as the lagged impact of rate rises, inflation and other economic influences catches up with the market,” Davidson said.
“The winter momentum was most certainly downwards across the country with the main centres hit hardest. The direction the cycle has been moving in shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.”
Davidson said there was still small amounts of price growth, but they were generally in small or rural areas such as Blaketown near Greymouth, Halfmoon Bay in Southland, Patea in South Taranaki and Ngatea in Hauraki.
Read more: Tauranga selected for extensive urban development assessment
Auckland
Davidson said of the 97% of Auckland suburbs which had experienced a drop in median property value, almost 180 suburbs recorded a fall of at least 1%.
“In 14 suburbs, drops of 5% or more were recorded including Glen Eden, Papatoetoe, Henderson and Panmure,” he said. “Falls of $100,000 or more occurred in seven Auckland suburbs, all of them ‘upper end’ areas where median values are at least $2 million.”
Wellington
Davidson said there had been near universal falls in median property values across the wider Wellington area including Wellington City, Porirua, Lower Hutt and Upper Hutt.
“Falls of at least 7% in the past three months have been recorded in Ranui, Naenae, Wallaceville, Rongotai and Taita,” he said. “Seatoun remains the most expensive suburb with a median value of $1.99 million which is down 2.9% from June’s level.”
Christchurch
Davidson said the Garden City had not escaped the price decline either.
“There was 76 out of 83 suburbs recording a decline in median property values since June,” he said. “The largest falls were seen in Kennedys Bush, Bromley and Wigram.”
Dunedin
Davidson said all suburbs in Dunedin had median property values drop in the three months to September.
“This ranges from 1.1% in Glenleith to -8.2% in Shiel Hill,” he said. “Maori Hill and East Taieri remain in the million-dollar club, but both have seen values fall since June.”
Hamilton
Davidson said in 29 out of 34 Hamilton suburbs, median property values fell over the past three months.
“Of the five where increases were recorded, only Deanwell and Queenwood registered a rise more than 1%,” he said. “The largest falls were seen in Grandview Heights (-4.8%), Huntington (-3.6%) and Fitzroy (-3.2%).”
Tauranga
Davidson said median property values in Tauranga fell across the board over the past three months, ranging from a 1.8% decline in Tauranga South to a 5.3% drop in Hairini.
“Tauranga still has eight one million-plus suburbs, down from 10 in the previous quarter,” he said. “Papamoa and Maungatapu have now dropped out of the exclusive million-dollar club.”
Davidson said while there were still short-term challenges ahead for the market, there were also potential green shoots for next year.
“The rise in mortgage rates over the past year means new borrowers can’t get as much finance and existing borrowers have to adjust too,” he said.
“There’s also now a sense of light at the end of the tunnel given the low unemployment figures and forecasts that mortgage rates could potentially be close to a peak. People are adjusting to the new norm and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the market trough in the first half of 2023.”
