ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index gains but remains below long-term average
Amid signs of easing inflation and recent interest rate cuts, the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Index rose 5.1 points to 98.3 in April, “shoring up the upward trend that was starting to look wobbly.”
While the increase is encouraging, the index remains below the neutral 100 mark, indicating continued caution among households.
Buying conditions improve slightly but still weak
One of the clearest indicators of household confidence is whether people think it’s a good time to buy a major household item—a key barometer for retail.
“The proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item (the best retail indicator) rose five points, but at a net rating of -11 it’s still nothing flash,” the ANZ-Roy Morgan report said.
According to the data:
- 44% say it’s a bad time to buy a major item (unchanged)
- 33% say it’s a good time (up 4 percentage points)
- This results in a net score of -11%, up from -16% in March
Future conditions drive sentiment gains
Consumer expectations for the year ahead played a major role in April’s improvement. The future conditions index rose 4 points to 105.2, while the current conditions index rose six points to 88.
Personal financial perceptions also saw a lift:
- A net -13% say they’re better off than a year ago (up 8 points)
- 26% (up 2 points) report being better off
- 39% (down 5 points) say they’re worse off
“A net 23% of New Zealanders expect to be better off this time next year, up seven points from March with 44% (up 2% points) of New Zealanders expecting to be 'better off financially' this time next year compared to only 22% (down 4% points) who expect to be “worse off financially,’” ANZ-Roy Morgan said.
Economic outlook and inflation expectations shift
Public sentiment around New Zealand’s economic outlook also lifted:
- twelve-month outlook: net -16% (up four points)
- five-year outlook: net +9% (up from +6%)
House price expectations remained stable at +3.4% year-over-year, while two-year CPI inflation expectations jumped:
“Inflation expectations soared 0.5pts to 4.7%, the highest reading since July 2023,” the report said.
ANZ-Roy Morgan noted that the rise in inflation expectations may stem from global tariff talk, though actual local impact may be limited.
“It may be related to global tariff talk, but since New Zealand is not putting on new tariffs, global developments are unlikely to be inflationary here,” the report said.
Broad-based lift, but retail sector still in the doldrums
The improvement in April was spread across most indicators, suggesting growing stability in consumer confidence. However, ANZ-Roy Morgan cautioned that this doesn’t yet translate into strong retail performance.
“ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand consumer confidence rose 5.1 points in April, with a broad-based lift across the component questions,” the report said.
“The most telling question for retailers is whether people think it’s a good time to buy a major household item. While it did improve… it’s still a long way from suggesting good times for the retail sector.”
Access the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence report here.
