Migration and internal shifts shape trends
BNZ’s latest insights revealed NZ’s population growth cooling, with urban exodus, migration dips, and regional shifts affecting housing, demand, and the path of economic recovery.
NZ’s population growth decelerates, impacting regions
According to BNZ chief economist Mike Jones (pictured above), New Zealand’s population growth has significantly slowed from last year’s peak.
The nation’s annual population increase was 1.8% as of June 2024, a marked drop from the 2.5% growth seen the previous year.
“The slowdown in population growth is only partway done,” with an expected dip to around 1.0% in 2025, Jones said.
Auckland remains the top region for population growth, while internal migration trends show a continued shift away from city centers.
Auckland leads, but Internal migration favours regional areas
While Auckland led population growth for a second year, attracting over half of recent net migration inflows, other areas also saw population changes.
Waikato and Canterbury attracted new residents, while Nelson would have faced a population decline without immigration inflows.
Rural regions like Northland, Otago, and Tasman remain popular with “region hoppers” relocating from urban areas. Canterbury’s Selwyn district, for instance, has seen a 35% population increase since 2018.
Regional differences in economic activity and business growth
As population growth has slowed, regional economic activity has seen mixed effects, BNZ said.
Business Demography Statistics show Canterbury and Otago experienced strong business unit growth, despite a nationwide slowdown.
Wellington, however, saw a decline in business numbers, highlighting regional economic divergence.
“The come down from last year’s record growth in population numbers was felt across most regions,” Jones said.
Rental market impacted by reduced demand
The population slowdown has created more housing supply across the country, easing rental and housing markets.
Vacancy rates have risen in all regions over the past year, particularly in Auckland and Wellington, where rental demand has softened. Falling rents in some areas reflect this new balance between supply and demand.
BNZ forecasts continued slowdown
With net migration cooling, BNZ predicts New Zealand’s population growth rate will continue to fall.
This anticipated decline could dampen the housing market recovery and broader economic rebound expected in 2025.
As internal migration trends persist and the rental market adjusts, New Zealand’s demographic landscape is shaping a more moderate economic outlook for the near future.
For the full insights, read the BNZ blog here.
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