Property values decline for ninth consecutive month
New Zealand’s property values fell by 0.4% in November, continuing a nine-month trend of declines, according to CoreLogic’s Home Value Index (HVI).
The average property value now stands at $800,795, 3.5% lower than a year ago and 17.7% below the post-COVID peak.
CoreLogic chief property economist Kelvin Davidson (pictured above) described the market as being in a “holding pattern.”
“The rate of decline has slowed, signaling that a floor for values may be approaching,” Davidson said.
City property values show mixed shifts
The larger cities exhibited mixed results in November.
Wellington experienced the steepest decline at 1.0%, followed by Hamilton (-0.5%) and Auckland (-0.4%). Tauranga remained flat, while Christchurch rose by 0.1%, and Dunedin saw a 0.4% increase.
Davidson noted Auckland’s abundant housing supply as a factor restraining values.
“The availability of both listed and newly built properties continues to weigh on Auckland’s market, though first-home buyers are staying active,” he said.
Regional trends show resilience
Regional markets showed some resilience, with Nelson up 0.3% and Hastings increasing 0.2%. Rotorua and Palmerston North held steady, but Queenstown dipped 0.8%, and Gisborne and Whangarei both fell by 0.9%.
“These fluctuations highlight the market’s holding pattern,” Davidson said. “While lower mortgage rates are offering support, other challenges, such as labor market weakness, continue to impact.”
Outlook for 2025
Looking ahead, Davidson expects lower mortgage rates and modest GDP growth to support rising property sales and values. CoreLogic predicts property sales will increase from approximately 80,000 this year to around 90,000 in 2025.
However, Davidson urged caution, citing debt-to-income (DTI) ratio restrictions.
“DTIs may limit how much borrowers can access, even if their cashflow improves with lower servicing costs,” he said.
While investors may find improved cashflow appealing, stricter lending criteria could present challenges.
“The market is stabilising, but 2025 will still require careful navigation,” Davidson said.
Read the CoreLogic report here.
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