Second pilot update for business expectations survey
The Tara-ā-Umanga Business Expectations Survey is in its experimental phase, with plans to launch regular publications by May 2025, according to the Reserve Bank (RBNZ).
Hundreds of businesses across various sectors are participating in the survey’s development, which is distinct from the existing survey of expectations that involves forecasters and economists.
Second pilot highlights changes
Following a public consultation in March and a first pilot in April, the second pilot of the survey was conducted in July. Feedback led to key adjustments, including a shorter and quicker survey format.
“We made the survey shorter and quicker for businesses to fill in,” said Matt Haigh,
director of data, statistics and analytics at RBNZ, which helped boost repeat participation – a crucial aspect of the survey design.
Core focus on key economic indicators
The updated survey now includes eight core questions focused on inflation, wages, and unemployment, covering multiple time horizons.
For the first time, primary industries such as agriculture and mining were also included, though response rates from smaller businesses in these sectors were slightly lower, prompting continued monitoring of data quality.
Further testing before full launch
Two additional pilot surveys are planned for October and January to refine the survey’s design and methodology.
Full implementation of the survey is expected in April, with the first official results to be published in May. This ongoing testing phase aims to build a robust sample size, establish time-series data, and finalise weighting methods.
RBNZ’s commitment to continuous improvement
The pilot surveys are part of a broader initiative to enhance the survey process based on participant feedback and experimental data.
As the survey evolves, the goal remains to develop a reliable and insightful tool that captures business expectations across New Zealand’s diverse economic landscape.
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