What it means for KiwiSaver, first-home buyers, and NZ's property outlook
Rising uncertainty in international markets, driven by new tariffs introduced by the United States, is creating ripple effects across New Zealand’s financial landscape.
Just days after imposing the steepest tariffs in over a century, the White House paused reciprocal measures for all countries except China—where imports now face a 145% levy and US exports, 125%. A weekend pivot later exempted key electronics, underscoring persistent uncertainty in trade policy.
With heightened volatility hitting both bonds and equities, KiwiSaver balances have taken a noticeable hit—prompting many New Zealanders to reassess their financial strategies.
Campbell Dunoon (pictured), LJ Hooker Group head of network NZ, highlighted the shift in mindset emerging during periods of market turbulence.
“Trade tensions have hit bonds and equities hard, and many of us have felt it in our KiwiSaver balances,” Dunoon said.
“Interestingly, during times of share market uncertainty, there’s sometimes a shift in focus towards property. It’s less about wild price swings and more about long-term stability.”
While higher-end property transactions may temporarily cool due to global uncertainty, mid-tier housing remains resilient thanks to consistent buyer interest and supply dynamics.
First-home buyers navigate KiwiSaver losses
For aspiring homeowners relying on KiwiSaver as a major part of their deposit, recent market fluctuations have been a setback. With many investment portfolios showing reduced returns, some first-home buyers are pausing to reconsider their timelines or seeking professional advice before withdrawing funds.
“First-home buyers considering a KiwiSaver withdrawal may be feeling more cautious depending on their investment mix,” Dunoon said. “If affected, they may require additional time and support throughout the process.”
He added that watching savings shrink can be demoralising for those already under pressure.
“For buyers who’ve already paid their deposit and are now just waiting for settlement day, the dip in KiwiSaver could mean they no longer have as much saved as they thought,” Dunoon said. “That’s where it can really hurt young Kiwis trying to get on the ladder.”
Still, first-home buyers remain active, accounting for 26.1% of property sales in 2024, according to CoreLogic.
With interest rates expected to ease in 2025, improved affordability could help restore confidence and enable more buyers to take the next step.
Property seen as a stable long-term asset
Despite international financial turbulence, property continues to be viewed as a safe haven.
Unlike the unpredictability of shares, real estate offers both personal value and long-term capital growth potential.
“Property prices can fluctuate but many people buy homes for personal reasons, with the added expectation that their property will appreciate in value over time,” Dunoon said. “There’s a lot of noise, but property ownership is still a focus for Kiwis.
“Nevertheless, in these uncertain times we just need patience and good guidance to make the most of it.”
With KiwiSaver balances under pressure and global markets in flux, property remains a reliable cornerstone in New Zealand’s financial landscape—particularly for those looking beyond short-term shocks and planning for future growth.
