Map reveals 10 areas with drops of $300,000 plus
An online map shows the New Zealand suburbs that experienced the biggest falls in property values over the last 12 months, and which had the smallest.
Releasing its Mapping the Market report for the March 2023 quarter on Monday which compares annual value movements for 983 suburbs across the country, CoreLogic said over a third experienced double-digit declines.
Ten suburbs recorded an annual fall of $300,000 or more: those suburbs with the biggest annual falls (March 2022 to March 2023) could be described as “top-end suburbs”, CoreLogic said. They include Saint Marys Bay, Westmere and Orakei in Auckland, and Seatoun and Karaka Bay in Wellington.
The bright spots in the country include Tuatapere in Southland (values up 11.2%), Reefton on the West Coast (values up 10.6%), Waimate in South Canterbury (values up 10.6%) and Riverton in Southland (values up 10.3%). Values in 30 suburbs grew by 5% or more, which CoreLogic identified were in regional areas and had lower entry points.
Using the CoreLogic Mapping the Market tool, people can click on a suburb of interest to see the current median property value and an indication of the annual change (March 2022 to March 2023) by percentage and dollar value.
Using the navigation panel on the right, users can scroll to a city of interest, then click on the map to view information for each suburb.
CoreLogic NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson (pictured above) told NZ Adviser that falling values were predominantly an issue for recent buyers who had purchased at or near the peak of the market and have since experienced a life change requiring them to sell.
“Generally someone who already owns a property and is relocating mightn’t feel so much pain, as their next purchase has probably got cheaper too,” Davidson said. “An investor who is selling and exiting the market might not be so pleased either, given they could have received more money a few months ago.”
Upper end suburbs generally have a higher entry point therefore the percentage fall would translate into a bigger dollar value drop, Davidson said. But he also acknowledged that the downturn had affected suburbs at other levels.
“More than a third of suburbs across New Zealand saw double-digit declines over the last year, and Wellington made up the bulk of the suburbs that posted the biggest falls,” Davidson said.
Values fell by 20% or more in 31 suburbs, 30 of them in the wider Wellington region, together with Fordlands in Rotorua.
“Overall this confirms that this downturn has been pretty deep and broad-based across many parts of the country – to the detriment of existing property owners but is a sign of hope for aspiring buyers who have their finance approved,” Davidson said.
Values in Auckland, Wellington and Tauranga suburbs decline
Values dropped in all of the 197 Auckland suburbs analysed over the year to March, with 185 suburbs recording a drop of 5% or more, CoreLogic said.
At 0.3% ($2,800), Waiuku posted the smallest annual decline, while falls of 16% or higher were seen in Waiatarua, Otara, Wattle Downs and Clover Park.
It was a similar story for Wellington, results showing no suburb had been spared from the property market downturn.
Values in Plimmerton were down almost 28%, while in Southgate, values were down 25%, CoreLogic said.
Despite recording the largest annual drop in prices ($389,800), Seatoun remained the most expensive Wellington suburb at $1.75m, data showed.
According to CoreLogic, Tauranga also showed drops in all suburbs analysed. Annual falls of around 10% were recorded in Parkvale, Gate Pa, Otumoetai, Papamoa Beach and Tauranga South. Similar to Auckland, more expensive suburbs such as Mount Maunganui and Matua experienced the largest annual drops in dollar value, at $100,000 plus.
In Hamilton, 28 of 35 suburbs analysed experienced an annual value decline of 5% or more, Templeview posting the biggest annual fall of 10.1%.
Values patchy in Christchurch and Dunedin
In Christchurch, nine suburbs were either flat or still rising in value, CoreLogic said. In the eastern suburb of Aranui, values rose 8.4%, while in Ilam, Spreydon and Sockburn, values fell 9%.
In Dunedin, annual value falls were widespread, with 37 of 62 suburbs analysed showing annual falls of 10% or more.
Areas with bigger falls could bottom out sooner
While higher mortgage rates present a higher barrier to entry and expensive repricing for existing borrowers, Davidson said many areas had already experienced significant falls.
As underlying drivers settle, the areas with more significant falls could bottom out first, he said.
“Overall, even if sales activity and property values bottom out this year as is expected, the property market may well remain subdued into 2024,” Davidson said. “But those ‘early fallers’, or suburbs where values dropped first, could then rise sooner too.”
