It follows year-end fluctuations as experts anticipate a strong spring market
Property transactions were stable in January 2025, with the latest figures from HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) indicating little change in seasonally adjusted residential sales compared to December 2024, following fluctuations in the final months of last year.
Seasonally adjusted residential transactions stood at 95,110 in January, a decrease of less than 1% from 96,050 in December. However, the figure was 14% higher than in January 2024. Non-seasonally adjusted residential transactions dropped 17% month-on-month to 81,360 but remained 21% higher than the same period last year.
Non-residential transactions followed a similar pattern. Seasonally adjusted figures declined by 4% between December and January to 9,350, representing a 5% decrease from January 2024. Non-seasonally adjusted transactions fell 19% on the month and 3% on the year, totalling 8,400.
The data suggests market activity has levelled off after notable movements in late 2024, which included a sharp rise in October, a decline in November, and another increase in December.
“These figures offer valuable insight into overall activity and are a key indicator as to how the market is likely to shape up in the first half of the year,” said Amy Reynolds (pictured left), head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, commenting on the HMRC property transactions data.
“Steady transaction volumes show that higher borrowing costs and affordability pressures are impacting buyers, preventing the market from running away with itself,” Reynolds said. “Early January was quiet, but the month as a whole turned out to be busier than usual with a good number of market appraisals, which bodes well for a strong spring market.”
Jason Tebb (pictured centre), president of property portal OnTheMarket, said the steady transaction numbers were encouraging as they are a better indicator of market health than house price fluctuations.
“These figures suggest that buyers have been trying to take advantage of the stamp duty savings to be made by bringing forward purchases to the first quarter of this year,” he noted.
“Two rate reductions in the second half of last year bolstered buyer and seller confidence, and with one cut already this year – and more expected – there is cautious optimism which bodes well for the spring market.”
According to Andrew Lloyd (pictured right), managing director at property data insight provider Search Acumen, the market’s early-year slowdown does not diminish its broader recovery.
“A typical slow start to the year should not detract from the fact that the recovery in the UK real estate market, which kicked off last year, continues to drive transactions in a positive direction,” Lloyd said.
“Against a less-than-optimal macroeconomic backdrop, with low growth and inflation fears heralding turbulence in the horizon, the start to 2025 is nonetheless seeing a lot of promise in the residential and commercial real estate sectors.
“In the housing market especially, the pending Stamp Duty deadline continues to put pressure on buyers to get transactions over the line. Looking towards commercial property, improved projections for overall returns are encouraging buyers and sellers to capitalise on these investment opportunities.”
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