It's difficult to try and second guess where the market's going, says director
In a market fraught with uncertainty, Jed Newton (pictured), director at Trinity Financial, knows the stakes are higher than ever for his clients – especially in the wake of that Budget.
“Recently, there’s been two pretty significant and tumultuous events which have further highlighted just how turbulent the market actually is,” he told Mortgage Introducer. “It’s difficult to try and second guess where the market’s going, because just when you think things are going one way, you’ll get a Budget that just changes everything.”
For Newton, this isn’t business as usual—it’s a fight to anticipate the next twist, to guide clients as events continue to “shift everything overnight.” Financial stability, once a constant for high-net-worth clients, has been overshadowed by fluctuating interest rates, political upheaval, and volatile housing trends that stretch his expertise to the edge. And, in this high-stakes environment, Newton has pivoted his approach to reflect the hard realities of 2024: strategies are no longer focused only on growth but on preservation and precision, where every choice has critical long-term implications.
One of the more pronounced shifts has been the impact of rising interest rates on the market, a force that Newton said has drastically changed client behaviour. The gradual decline in rates over the past year has injected a renewed sense of confidence among first-time buyers, but Newton’s wealthier clientele sees things differently.
“People who are transacting at higher property values are tending to do it with less debt than they would have done previously,” he explained. With borrowing costs now at levels that make large mortgages unattractive, high-net-worth buyers are leveraging cash and investments, distancing themselves from the debt they might have taken on in previous years.
“When interest rates were one and a half percent, we were finding clients who were looking to effectively leave their investments as they were and take the biggest mortgages they could,” Newton noted. “We’re not finding that to be the case at the moment.”
In London’s property market, the international buyer—a key player for luxury properties—has notably pulled back. Economic turbulence and global conflicts have sidelined overseas investors, and Newton isn’t optimistic about a turnaround soon.
“The demand for high-value property seems to be less across the board, the impacts of the Labour government and the move towards the removal of non-DOM status is only going to exacerbate that.”
And, with fewer buyers vying for top-tier properties, UK-based clients with high liquidity are poised to capture deals that once would have drawn fierce competition from abroad.
Yet, despite this bleak outlook in certain sectors, family homes in coveted London neighbourhoods remain an anomaly.
“There’s still very significant competition for good large family houses in…good areas of London,” Newton revealed, explaining that limited stock has shielded these properties from the broader slowdown. Here, demand is unwavering, even as other sectors lag.
"Whenever there’s a large development, there's more [one- and two-bed flats]...But, there’s very few new houses being built,” he added.
For Newton, a major concern is the escalating strain on landlords in the face of stringent policies and relentless interest rates. He sees a troubling decline in the private rental sector, driven by tax burdens, stamp duty hikes, and government policies that have essentially forced landlords out of the market.
“It’s very unfair, because obviously, landlords have done a great job of providing an essential part of the housing mix within London,” he said. He fears that, if current trends persist, the market will become unsustainable for private landlords, driving up rental prices as remaining landlords can afford to be “more and more picky” about tenants.
This is an area where Newton speaks with notable urgency: he predicts that, without intervention, London’s rental market could price out families, students, and other vulnerable demographics, ultimately stifling the city’s accessibility.
Adapting to this rapidly shifting market, Newton and his team have embraced a strategy grounded in short-term stability. With fixed-rate products at four to five per cent, clients are no longer aiming to maximise borrowing power but rather seeking a manageable budget.
“People now feel much more comfortable at the level of interest rates that we find ourselves at…we’re seeing a lot more purchase activity as a result of that,” Newton added.
