Brokers have been warned that both the Leave and Remain Campaigns fighting over whether the UK stays in Europe will spout “a lot of random nonsense” over the coming weeks.
Brokers have been warned that both the Leave and Remain Campaigns fighting over whether the UK stays in Europe will spout “a lot of random nonsense” over the coming weeks.
In the wake of today’s furore over a Treasury paper claiming Britain’s economy will suffer dramatically in the event of a Brexit Andrew Montlake, director at Coreco, said “the truth is that no-one really knows what the overall effect will be”.
He said: “One possible outcome of an out vote does cause panic among investors, leading them to an immediate weakening in sterling which ultimately forces interest rate rises, but there are also those who suggest it would trigger an immediate cut in rates and the resumption of quantitative easing.
“Whether you believe this or not will be down to your individual political views on Europe as a whole.
“But we are about to hear a lot of random nonsense from both sides of the debate about what will happen when the truth is that no-one really knows what the overall effect will be.”
Montlake warned that it was uncertainty about the future which was most damaging.
He added: “Much like the Scottish Referendum it is this uncertainty more than anything that will cause issues and ultimately lead to the Remain camp breathing a sigh of relief when the votes are counted.”
Meanwhile Ray Boulger, senior technical director at John Charcol, said this morning’s claim by George Osborne that families would be £4,300 a year worse off in an independent Britain was “just more propaganda to add to the project fear approach of the Remain Campaign”.
He said: “If Osborne really expects people to believe that a Brexit will result in a household on average income seeing a drop of about 15% he needs to explain in simple terms why income will fall that much.
“I think that bandying about figures like this, which are pure guesswork, are counter-productive.
“Neither side knows what will happen over the next 30 years or so but taking a view on this is what is needed as whichever way this vote goes we are unlikely to have another vote on the same issue for very many years.”
Boulger came out strongly in favour of Brexit based on “strongly objecting to 30% of the EU budget being spent on the ludicrous common agricultural policy”.
He added: “I would vote to remain for a genuinely reformed EU, but the so called reforms David Cameron has achieved are minimal and it should be obvious to everyone by now that the EU is not only undemocratic but also incapable of meaningful reform.
“The EU is intent on empire-building and the more countries it admits, especially when Turkey is allowed in, the more the UK's voice will be ignored.”
Earlier today Conservative member of parliament for Wokingham and leader of the Conservative policy group on economic competitiveness John Redwood told the BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme the forecasts were “completely worthless”.
The Treasury’s predictions claim that the economy will be 6% smaller in 2030 than it might otherwise have been if Britain hits its economic growth targets over 15 years and the population rises by the rate forecast by the Office for National Statistics.
Oxford Economics recently published forecasts that suggested the UK economy would be just 3.9% worse off by 2030 if the country leaves the EU; PWC and the CBI research suggested that the impact would be just 3.5% lower GDP growth by the same year.
