2003/4 Annual house price inflation
Jan 26.5%
Feb 23.5%
Mar 22.5%
Apr 17.8%
May 15.6%
Jun 14.0%
Jul 13.2%
Aug 12.4%
Sep 9.1%
Oct 9.8%
Nov 9.9%
Dec 9.6%
Jan 9.9%
Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove, explains: “The usual seasonal downturn in prices seems to have been very short-lived this year, and the declines of December have virtually been wiped out by the strong surge over the past week or so. This New Year pick-up may set the tone for 2004.”
While the overall asking prices declined by 0.1% month-on-month, this represents the lowest fall experienced during the traditional December slowdown in the 3 years since Rightmove started its index.
This is also reflected by the year-on-year house price inflation increase to 9.9% this month, up from 9.6% last month – the highest figure for 5 months.
Miles Shipside continues: “All the signs are there that the housing market will start 2004 in a busy and healthy way. There are clearly more prospective buyers than sellers around at the moment, and an early springtime pick-up in activity looks likely, which could lead to steadily rising prices again. I wouldn’t predict a return to the boom, but with this kind of early indication, I can’t see a significant deterioration in the housing market this year, as some commentators have been saying. My hunch is that annual house price inflation could easily edge into double figures this year.”
The New Year price surge coincides with a strong uplift in purchaser interest, with record numbers of people viewing property details on the internet resulting in record enquiries to estate agents and developers regarding properties. This surge in activity from prospective purchasers gives support to the view that the housing market will see a healthy start to 2004.
Miles Shipside comments: “Measurement and analysis of site traffic statistics on Rightmove.co.uk confirms strong interest from prospective buyers coming through in the form of spectacular site traffic on the internet. In the first week of the year, site visits exceeded 984,000, running at more than twice the level seen in the first fortnight of December – when the weekly average of site visits was 483,000. Over the past week, 23.5 million pages of property details have been viewed on the site, again twice the level a month ago, and twice the level of the same period last year. Whilst concerns over the Iraqi war had a dampening effect on the housing market at the beginning of 2003, the fear of rising interest rates in 2004 is obviously not worrying home movers to the same extent.”
Regionally, prices rose in all parts of the country, except for East Anglia and the West Midlands. Greater London and the South East saw small rises over the month, of 0.3% and 0.1%, which is significant given that these areas were the least strong performers in 2003. Wales, the North and Yorkshire & Humberside saw the largest rises this month, of 5.6%, 4.0% and 3.9%, suggesting perhaps that the trend of 2003 – with northern parts of the country and Wales enjoying a much more buoyant housing market than southern parts – may continue in 2004.
Miles Shipside summarises: “It’s very early days, but data from the Rightmove.co.uk site gives the earliest indication of what is happening in 2004. Interest from buyers – effectively latent demand – has never been as high as it is at the moment. With so much interest, home movers appear to be feeling very positive about moving in 2004.”
