The average UK broker believes house prices have 9.2% further to fall, according to Exact’s latest white paper. Exact polled 539 mortgage intermediaries as part of their research into the future performance of UK house prices. Twenty two per cent of brokers were less positive, believing we will see further house price deflation of between 10 and 20% before we reach the bottom of the market.
Seventy two per cent, the largest proportion of brokers surveyed, think house prices will continue on a downward path for the next six to twelve months. When asked about their clients’ sentiment, 57% of brokers said borrowers believed house prices had not troughed yet.
This poll contrasts with a larger survey of Mortgage Introducer readers last month, in which 62% believed that prices would not fall any further in the coming months.
Alan Cleary, managing director of Exact mortgage experts, said, “Housing market commentators would have us believe green shoots have been springing up everywhere, but for those in the know about the UK mortgage market, sentiment hasn’t turned yet. House prices can’t recover until the mortgage market is fixed – and that’s some way off. Without the wholesale money markets, there isn’t enough cash to fund the kind of house buying which drove prices up in the past.”
Exact’s white paper research also reveals that 44% of brokers do not see lenders increasing their volume of lending for at least six to twelve months. 31% of brokers believed it more likely that lending volumes would take between a year and eighteen months to improve.
Alan Cleary continued, “Housing market commentators can make a song and dance about the odd blip in monthly house price indices, but the reality is, these blips are a dead cat bounce. Buyer interest might be improving as some commentators suggest, but interest won’t translate into housing transactions without mortgage finance. Gross lending is on track to hit around £150bn this year – that’s less than half the size of the mortgage market at its peak. Demand for housing may be growing, but without mortgage funding, the normal rules of supply and demand won’t come into play. Until lenders ease up their criteria and start to offer finance more freely, the lack of action in the housing market will push house prices down further. I’m expecting a 37% peak to trough fall.”
