Back in late 2013 the CML had predicted that mortgage lending would stand at around £195bn for 2014.
In the latest edition of the CML News and Views the association said: “Activity was stronger than we had anticipated in the closing months of 2013 and first few months of 2014, and these baseline effects provide much of the explanation as to why we have modestly revised up our forecast for industry gross lending this year.
“We now expect gross lending this year to rise above £200bn, for the first time since 2008.
“The growth in lending continues into 2015, but this is likely to be at a more sedate pace, as momentum in the housing market diminishes under growing affordability pressures.”
And the CML said those pressures were most likely to be felt by first-time buyers.
The CML said: “[It] is likely to impact more noticeably on first-time buyers, such that their share of overall loans for house purchase retreats from recent 14-year highs.
“The FPC will formally review the Help to Buy scheme in September. For the purposes of these market forecasts, we have assumed that there are no fresh announcements which materially affect take-up.
“The Treasury has, of course, already announced that no sales under Help to Buy should be on more than 4.5 times income multiple, following the recent macro-prudential interventions.
“On this basis, Help to Buy schemes seem likely to account for a growing share of overall first-time buyer transactions over the short-term.”
