The data, in fact, shows that prices are growing again, according to the company, with May figures showing very strong annualised growth of 17.3% per annum. The three month rolling average data shows 4% growth currently and the 6 month moving average reflects only a 5% fall, indicating the start of a reversal in the recent downward trend in house prices.
The five major house price indices still show an average of 12.2% falls for the twelve months prior to May 2009 but this hides the sudden reversal in house prices seen in the last few months. The bottom of the growth curve can clearly be seen in February and March this year, with the rate of annual decline slowing in recent months. The average house price in May 2009, taken from the average house price provided by five major UK indices, was £185,276, an increase of £1,978 compared to the previous month's average value (£183,298). The average house price is almost the same as in January 2009 (£185,408), showing house prices have barely fallen since the start of the year.
Commenting, Stuart Law, chief executive of Assetz, said: "All indicators now suggest that we have passed the bottom of the house price curve. While we can't read too much into one set of figures alone, all the major indices and the recent RICS survey are all indicating an end to falling prices and an increase in activity.
"Extreme supply limitations and the recent introduction of some interesting new first time buyer mortgage products will help support market recovery and it is likely we will see a flurry of higher loan to value rates released as soon as it is widely recognised that the market has stabilised and the risk to the banking sector of further housing equity losses has diminished.
" I believe that my original prediction of -5% price falls for the whole of 2009, although at the most positive end of commentators’ projections, is now looking too pesimistic. I expect to see a return to positive year-to-date growth for 2009 by the end of the summer, with an overall growth of around 5% or greater. We expect further sustained recovery in 2010 with concerns over the effect of further job losses overstated in the face of current housing market conditions."
