The average house price in England and Wales at December (measured over a three month period) rose £2,897 on the year’s lowest price in June but was down £3,996 on the highest in March.
The twelve month story shows prices falling 1.8% in the first six months of the year and recovering 1.3% in the second half, accounting for the 0.5% fall over the year.
Peter Williams, housing market specialist and chairman of Acadametrics, said: “The price recovery in the second part of the year took place as a “summer bounce” in July and August – a bounce not repeated over the remainder of the year.
“Setting aside the April and May price hiccups caused by Stamp Duty changes, our average price has not changed by more than 1% in any month, at national level, since February 2010.”
The marginal price rise in December cut last month’s year on year house price fall from -0.7% to -0.5%, in England and Wales as a whole.
And the current average price of £220,385 is now £20,150 or 10.1% above the £200,235 price at the April 2009 trough of the last housing recession.
It is £11,443 or 4.9% below the price peak of £231,828, recorded in February 2008.
Given that the December 2011 average house price is only 0.5% below that in December 2010, house prices nationally have proved more durable than LSL Acadametrics’ original expectation of a 2.5% fall.
The majority of regions saw prices drop in the past year but London prices rose 3.1% annually.
Wales also saw a yearly boost of 0.7%, which LSL Acadametrics said could be due to volatility caused by the low number of transactions in Wales.
Williams added: “Prices in Wales overall have certainly been affected by their 11% growth in Cardiff over the past six months which with Caerphilly appears in amongst the five unitary authorities showing positive percentage annual price growth in the last quarter.”
National transactions meanwhile fell 2.1% over 2011 although activity in the second half of 2011 was faster than the year before.
The research estimate that December transactions in England and Wales amounted to 59,150 taking the annual total to 650,000.
This is marginally fewer than the 664,000 properties sold in 2010, although during the last five months of 2011, total sales exceeded those for the same five months in 2010.
Williams said: “Our 650,000 estimate falls 39% below the 16 year 1995-2010 long term average of 1,065,000 p.a. transactions – a shortfall of no fewer than 400,000 sales.”
At 650,000 annual sales 2011 will prove to be the second lowest year for housing sales - equal to that of 2008 - since Land Registry began computerising its records, back in 1995.
The lowest recorded sales in a year occurred in 2009 at 624,000.
Williams said most households will have seen real falls in prices relative to inflation in 2011.
He said: “If this is the essence of 2011 then 2012 seems likely to be a repeat with uncertainty, once again, dominating the picture.
“The market is not expecting base rates to rise in 2012 but unemployment will rise and the supply of mortgage finance will remain tight.”
Williams said the outlook for house prices was likely to be flat.
And he added: “The housing market has on balance performed well compared to the economy as a whole.
“It has shown considerable resilience and subject to any sharp rise in interest rates or unemployment (or falls in income) it looks likely that it could continue along this path in 2012.
“On balance, this is good news of a sort for existing owners who should not see the value of their homes radically reduced.”
Williams added that over time affordability for first-time buyers has eased although, if their incomes are also falling, access to the market will not have improved.
Richard Sexton, director of e.surv, said 2012 is set to be another tough year.
He said: “With the global economy in a parlous state, the size of mortgage advances which rose in the past 12 months by 3.5%, could begin to decline.
“The stamp duty holiday for first-time buyers will end in March which means first-time buyers will have to stump up at least an extra £2,200.
“This is likely to create a rush in the first part of this year at the lower end of the market as buyers scramble to avoid the purchase tax – after that, we could see first-time buyer activity fall sharply.”
