The survey reveals that brokers anticipate that mortgage volumes will contract slightly over the coming 12 months, while just under half expect house prices will fall.
Most respondents believe business levels will be broadly stable or will decline by up to 10%. On average, volumes are expected to fall by 5.9%. Business is predicted to be slightly more affected in the North, Scotland and Northern Ireland, while the Midlands, West and Wales will decline to a lesser extent.
Peter Williams, executive director of IMLA, commented: "The findings of the survey show intermediaries as realistic but not unduly disheartened. They recognise that mortgage volumes will be lower in the year ahead than they have been in the past and that they need to adjust their business models accordingly - for example relying on technology to a greater extent to handle applications.
"In the current market place, it remains essential that intermediaries continue to work to provide high quality support to their customers by providing appropriate advice and helping them search the market and secure the mortgage or remortgage they require. Going forward this is going to be ever more important."
Broker responses reflect local conditions. In terms of house prices, only around one broker in thirty expects house price inflation to continue, while 43% think prices will remain stable over the coming 12 months. A larger percentage of 47% said house prices would decline. However, the findings were marginally more positive than at the beginning of 2008, when more than half thought prices would fall and less than 40% said they would remain stable. Respondents in the South East were somewhat more bullish, with just under 44% predicting prices would decline, compared with 50% or more in other parts of the country.
Asked about the level of service provided by lenders and use of technology, respondents responded positively in most categories. Lenders scored most highly in terms of: speed in providing an approval-in-principle, with 60% saying service was excellent or good; general friendliness and helpfulness, where the approval rating was also almost 60%; and knowledge of mortgage products, with a score in excess of 50%. Not surprisingly perhaps, lenders fell down on sensitivity to personal circumstances, with only around 20% of brokers rating the service as excellent or good. This no doubt reflects the overall difficulty of placing more difficult cases with non-standard features in today's challenging mortgage market.
Technology continues to play a steadily increasing role in the dealings between intermediaries and lenders. 65% of cases are currently submitted online, and brokers expect this to increase to 74% in 12 months' time. The South East sees greater use of technology but even in the North, Scotland and Northern Ireland 70% of cases are expected to be handled online within 12 months.
