Your Move predicted the Land Registry index will rise 1.43% in June, while July's index is set to be much smaller as the housing market slows down.
Your Move actual agreed prices - typically reached eleven weeks prior to exchange - fell by 0.97% on average in June, to £183,017 from £184,619 in May, further reinforcing the slowdown and suggesting falls in the August Land Registry index.
It said there was some good news for sellers, as actual agreed prices closed on sellers' original asking prices this month. As a percentage of asking prices, agreed prices rose to 91.74% (compared to 90.31% in May).
David Newnes, managing director of Your Move, said: "Our model forecasts that the house prices reported by HMLR will have a good June. June looks like a fillip - are we seeing the last of significant monthly rises in house prices? The July figures are fresh evidence suggesting the froth is coming off the market with price rises starting to cool. Your Move's own management data shows that agreed prices (set approximately two months ahead of exchange prices) are falling this month.
"This is the result of a number of factors. The chief factor is affordability. Interest rate rises since August 2006 is dampening sentiment and as a result the property market's astral price growth is starting to slow. We shouldn't over-blow the interest rate hikes though - this is not 1991 when we were all paying 15%. But bills are going up, interest rates are rising, and belts are being tightened.
"Secondly, there are rumours the introduction of HIPs could be revised yet again. There are anecdotal reports Ministers are thinking about forcing the scheme on all three-bedroom homes. The threat to require three-bedroom properties to have information packs from 1 August is only adding confusion to the already chaotic launch of HIPs.
"These two factors coupled with a traditional seasonal market slow down over the coming summer months means no one should be surprised if house price growth is slower, something those contemplating entering the housing market over the next 12 months could well welcome"
EXCHANGE PRICE & PREDICTOR
Your Move's monthly house price predictor is forecasting a 1.43% increase in the exchange price of the average UK property in June. The predictor is based on Your Move's agreed sales data adjusted to reflect the Land Registry's sales distribution in those months. The predictor also anticipates the average house price on exchange will rise in July - albeit at a slower rate (1.05% to £185,083).
AGREED PRICES
Agreed prices (the value agreed when a buyer's offer is accepted) fell slightly suggesting that prices will slacken during August. Actual agreed prices - typically reached eleven weeks prior to exchange - fell 0.97% on average in June, to £183,017 from £184,619 in May. However the month's performance is not symptomatic of the long-term upward swing in agreed prices, which have risen 7.67% year-on-year.
AGREED PRICE AS A PERCENTAGE OF ASKING (INSTRUCTION) PRICES
Actual agreed prices neared sellers' original asking prices this month. As a percentage of asking prices, agreed prices rise to 91.74% (compared to 90.31% in May).
