At a maximum, the Financial Services Authority anticipates house price growth will decrease by about 2% per annum about four years after implementation.
It said if house price growth would have been 34% over the years 2014 to 2022 without the MMR, it estimates that it would be 23% with the MMR.
The FSA said: “We measure the macroeconomic impacts of the MMR relative to a base case which assumes slow economic recovery emerging in 2013 and the return of relatively benign macroeconomic conditions by 2014.
“For as long as the economy continues scarcely to grow, with subdued conditions persisting in the housing market, the macroeconomic impact of the MMR is likely to be trivial.”
