The institute estimated that GDP output grew by 0.1% in the three months ending in December after growth of 0.3% in the three months ending in November.
This implies the economy expanded by 1% in 2011, half the rate of growth experienced in 2010 of 2.1%.
NIESR interprets the term “recession” to mean a period when output is falling or receding, while “depression” is a period when output is depressed below its previous peak.
Thus, unless output turns down again, NIESR said it considers the recession over, while the period of depression is likely to continue for some time.
NIESR’s track record in producing GDP estimates for the most recent three-month period has a standard error of 0.1-0.2% when compared to the first estimate produced by the Office for National Statistics.
