What caused the decline?
Residential and non-residential property transactions in the UK fell sharply in November 2024, following a significant spike in October tied to the Autumn Budget, latest figures from HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) have shown.
Seasonally adjusted residential transactions dropped by 8% to 92,640 in November, down from 100,580 in October. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, residential transactions fell by 6% to 104,440 over the same period.
Non-residential transactions also saw a notable decline. Seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions fell by 33% in November compared to October, while non-seasonally adjusted figures dropped by 35%. October 2024 recorded the highest monthly seasonally adjusted non-residential transaction figures since records began in April 2005.
The data suggest that the surge in October transactions may have been driven by deals being brought forward ahead of the Budget, contributing to the steep decline in November.
“A dip in transaction numbers compared with the previous month is always concerning as transactions are a better indicator of market health than house price fluctuations,” said Jason Tebb (pictured left), president of property search portal OnTheMarket, commenting on the HMRC property transactions data.
“However, the numbers need to be put into context as buyers and sellers brought forward transactions to October amid concerns as to what the Budget might hold, boosting activity that month.”
Tebb pointed out that the two rate reductions in the second half of last year bolstered buyer and seller confidence, and with further cuts expected this year, there is cautious optimism which bodes well for the spring market.
“This month, we have been seeing a good number of market appraisals, which is often a precursor to a strong spring market,” added Amy Reynolds (pictured centre), head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts.
“In areas where stock is limited, markets have remained steady, particularly the family home market with work-from-home potential. Homes that are well priced and well presented are still selling relatively quickly; while buyers may pause to assess financial implications, high-demand areas are likely to retain interest.”
According to Nick Leeming (pictured right), chairman of property sales and letting firm Jackson-Stops, the elevated level of activity seen in the previous months are likely continue through the early months of 2025, as buyers push to complete their transactions ahead of the Stamp Duty deadline.
“Across the Jackson-Stops network, we anticipate house prices to stay firm in 2025 while some local markets may see price increases of up to 4%,” Leeming said. “Market activity will be driven by buyers’ pursuit of stability amid economic uncertainty.
“First-time buyers will be eager to secure their place as rental costs rise, upsizers will seek more space for growing families, and downsizers will aim to simplify their lives and capitalise on current market conditions.”
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