"Data released today by HMRC continues to highlight a key element in the unfolding story of the housing market which is the collapse in transactions. September data showed that there were 59,000 deals during the month. While this was only marginally below the August figure on a seasonally adjusted basis, it is more 50% down on the level of the year ago.
This is now having a meaningful impact on both consumer spending and jobs. It has as a result played a large role in pushing the economy to the brink of recession. There are some signals that housing market activity could be close to hitting a floor but there is a danger that a sharp rise in unemployment could precipitate a further round of fear on the part of buyers. We now expect the MPC to lower the base rate by a further 50 basis points when it meets in November in an effort to provide some support for the beleaguered economy."
