"Today's data is a minor dip in what has otherwise been an energetic period"
The number of UK residential property transactions in July 2024 was marginally lower (less than 1%) than in the previous month, new data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) has shown.
The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate recorded 90,630 transactions, which is still 7% higher compared to July 2023.
The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate for UK residential transactions was 96,800 in July 2024, reflecting a 13% rise compared to July 2023 and a 7% increase from June 2024.
For non-residential property transactions, the latest HMRC monthly property transactions report revealed the provisional seasonally adjusted estimate in July 2024 was 10,000, a 2% increase from July 2023 and a 4% rise from June 2024.
The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate for non-residential transactions stood at 10,350 in July 2024, up 11% year-on-year and 13% higher than the previous month.
“Today’s data is a minor dip in what has otherwise been an energetic season,” said Chris Little (pictured left), chief revenue officer at mortgage software provider finova. “Right now, there is a lot of pent-up demand in the current property market, as buyers and sellers search for the most suitable options in a crowded market.
“The base rate cut will certainly stimulate activity, but we may not see an uptick in transaction volumes until later in the year. What we do know for sure is that the market is locked into a mortgage price war. Lenders are competing to fill their books before the end of 2024, and so the market is flush with opportunities. Although transactions may seem flat today, the stage is being set for a much busier property market in 2025.”
Tony Hall (pictured centre), head of business development at Saffron for Intermediaries, agreed, stressing that while today’s figures are not what the industry has expected, the housing market still looks poised for a busy autumn.
“With the Bank of England’s first interest rate cut since 2020 last month, we’re seeing a wave of new sub-4% deals energising the mortgage market,” Hall pointed out. “Buyers are eager to jump back in, and with Zoopla reporting that listings have hit a seven-year high, this momentum will only grow further.
“That said, there will still be hurdles for prospective buyers as today’s market is a different ballgame compared to the years of ultra-low rates we had before. That’s why borrowers need to explore the growing range of mortgage options out there.”
Aman Bajwa (pictured right), co-founder and director at Fairbridge Capital, said: “Confidence in the UK property market is clearly up. And while we haven’t seen this translated into activity in today’s figures, we can expect this to change in the coming months.
“With the number of buyers contacting estate agents through Rightmove up by a fifth year-on-year, we should see the interest feed through into transactions, particularly with the lower rates currently on offer. Rising rents, which are up 5.7% in the year to June, should also coax buy-to-let investors back into the market, which has had a tough year-to-date.
“For those seeking to leverage favourable market conditions, timing is key. As such, we could see a continued increase in specialist lending which can offer a strategic advantage and help finance investments when swift action is needed.”
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