This being the second consecutive quarter of declining GDP, we are now officially in a recession. The market had expected a slightly lower 1.2% decline for the period, although no one seems to be able to be able to predict what the economy will do at present. Estimates of how long the recession will last seem to vary between four and eight quarters, the latter would mean it would be nearly 2011 before any sort of recovery.
The details:
Construction output decreased by 1.1 per cent, compared with a decrease of 0.2 per cent in the previous quarter.
Total production output weakened further in the fourth quarter, decreasing by 3.9 per cent, compared with a fall of 1.4 per cent in the previous quarter. Manufacturing output made the largest contribution to the slow down, falling by 4.6 per cent compared with a 1.6 per cent decrease in the previous quarter. Mining and quarrying fell by 1.6 per cent compared with a decrease of
1.1 per cent in the third quarter. Electricity, gas and water output decreased by 0.2 per cent, compared with a fall of 0.6 per cent in the previous quarter.
Services output weakened by 1.0 per cent compared with a fall of 0.5 per cent in the third quarter. Distribution, hotels and restaurants made the largest contribution to the decrease in output. Government and other services and transport and communication contributed most to the increased rate of decline.
Distribution, hotels and restaurants fell by 2.4 per cent, compared with a decrease of 2.1 per cent in the previous quarter. Weaker wholesaling and motor trades output contributed most to the reduction.
Transport, storage and communication fell by 2.0 per cent, compared with a fall of 0.1 per cent in the third quarter. Land transport and transport support made the largest contribution to the decrease in output.
Business services and finance decreased by 0.5 per cent, compared with a decrease of 0.6 per cent in the previous quarter. Other business services made the largest contribution to the fall in output, this was partly offset by increased growth in computing.
Government and other services output fell by 0.5 per cent, compared with positive growth of 0.6 per cent in the previous quarter. Weaker recreation and sewage and refuse made the largest contribution to the decrease.
Agriculture, forestry and fishing output increased by 0.1 per cent compared with a decrease of 0.4 per cent in the previous quarter.
