His comments follow RBA minutes citing concerns over future rate moves
Interest rate reductions may be slower and less significant than some anticipate, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) chief executive Matt Comyn (pictured above) has warned.
“It will be a slower and shallower cycle than many expect,” Comyn said during the Australian Financial Review Business Summit in Sydney on Tuesday.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its cash rate in February, marking its first reduction in four years. However, there is ongoing debate over the extent of further cuts this year. Swaps markets suggest the benchmark rate could drop by another 50 basis points by the end of 2025.
Australia’s major banks also foresee additional reductions. CBA projects the cash rate will reach 3.35% by the end of the year, while NAB expects the rate to go down to 3.1% by February 2026. Westpac’s forecast aligns with CBA’s, whereas ANZ anticipates just one more cut, lowering the rate to 3.85%.
Commonwealth Bank CEO Matt Comyn said he expects interest rates to be reduced less than what some people are anticipating https://t.co/gfQ6w8oNgb
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 4, 2025
“It’s really going to hinge on a couple of data points, but I wouldn’t be surprised if rate cuts don’t come until the end of the year,” Comyn said.
Minutes from the RBA’s most recent meeting, released Tuesday, highlighted concerns about future rate movements. Policymakers noted that Australia remains an outlier in the global post-pandemic economic cycle. The country did not raise rates as aggressively as other developed economies and continues to have a relatively strong labour market.
The RBA has signalled a cautious approach to monetary policy, warning that easing too quickly could undermine inflation control efforts. The central bank, set to meet again on April 1 for its next rate decision, aims to return inflation to its 2-3% target range.
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