Out-of-province buyers are expected to find value in Calgary's housing market despite projections of modest price growth
With affordability continuing to slip out of grasp for scores of homebuyers in Toronto and Vancouver, the rise and rise of Calgary as a reasonably priced and hugely liveable city has accelerated in recent years.
But while buyers both within Alberta and outside the province are turning their attention to Calgary’s housing market, there seems little prospect of the city’s price gains surging to the levels seen in Canada’s largest and most expensive urban regions.
The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) said in its forecast for the year ahead that demand will remain strong in the city in 2025 – but balanced conditions are expected to prevail, contributing to modest annual price growth of 3% in the coming 12 months.
Sales are set to come in at over 26,000 units, CREB’s chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie said, a significantly higher figure than long-term averages, but an improved outlook on the supply front will also boost buying power.
The price outlook varies depending on the property type. Average annual benchmark prices in the detached space, for instance, jumped by 10.79% in 2024 compared with the prior year - but at $748,683 were still well below the levels seen in Toronto and Vancouver.
On the semi-detached side, a 10.94% year-over-year jump took the average annual benchmark price to $669,042, while row homes spiked by 14.15% in value to an average benchmark of $452,425.
Those prices mean options are there for buyers to take their first steps in Calgary’s housing market, according to local broker Max Singh (pictured top), of TMG The Mortgage Group, and begin growing their own wealth.
That’s an option that’s simply not on the table for a huge number of buyers in Toronto and Vancouver unless they can rely on dual income or financial assistance from parents or family members.
But buyers who are able to make a move in the Calgary market now are encouraged to do so, Singh told Canadian Mortgage Professional, in case prices jump further in the future. “You can get yourself a condo or a starter townhouse as an example and enter yourself into the market – and gradually you will grow that property over time as you mature and your own personal financials, income and savings mature over time,” he said.
Frances Hinojosa, CEO & Co-founder of Tribe Financial, emphasizes that while predictions can offer peace of mind, they should not drive rash decisions or be used out of fear. https://t.co/1GeA2tfpQU
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) February 7, 2025
“Sometimes, [buyers] don’t like that suggestion. Usually what they’ll say is ‘I’ll wait until I save more money’. We try to explain to them that the goalposts move further and faster – income doesn’t seem to match that housing growth and savings.”
Buyers finding value in more remote Alberta markets
Outlying Alberta markets are also appealing for those buyers who don’t quite meet the threshold for the property they want to purchase in Calgary, Singh added, with Red Deer and Edmonton both benefiting from an upsurge in interest.
Unsurprisingly, switching to Alberta also remains an appealing option for buyers who can just about afford to purchase a home in Ontario or British Columbia, but find much better value for money in Alberta.
“For an out-of-province remote worker, if they were saying to themselves, ‘Hey, my income is going to remain the same wherever I live – now the question is, how do I get my dollar to go further?’ they may find that their money travels a little further in areas such as the Edmonton market or Lethbridge or Red Deer,” Singh said.
“I guess it’s a matter of choice per consumer where they want to live. But affordability is still widely available.”
Housing starts to remain muted – but Alberta impact likely less severe
One potentially ominous factor for Alberta’s housing market: while more supply is projected to become available this year, housing starts are slowing across the country in general. Still, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said in its latest housing market outlook that with the lag in starts set to be seen most obviously in the new condominium apartment space, Alberta will be less affected by that trend than BC and Ontario.
“Because more buyers [in Alberta] are actual residents as opposed to investors,” the national housing agency said, “the impact on new construction will be minimal.”
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