The former Bank of Canada governor would bring an impeccable reputation – but striking political gold is easier said than done
He built a peerless reputation at home and abroad by expertly helping steer the Canadian economy through the global financial crisis as Bank of Canada governor and navigating the economic turmoil of Brexit when he helmed the Bank of England. Now, Mark Carney is weighing up a bid to become Canada’s next prime minister – a job that would likely prove his biggest challenge yet.
Long eyed by Justin Trudeau as a potential star appointment to the federal finance ministry, Carney, 59, said after the departing Prime Minister’s resignation announcement that he would be “closely” considering whether to run for the Liberal Party leadership in the days ahead.
Currently a chair at Brookfield Asset Management, Carney would probably be the most prominent non-politician to throw their hat into the ring by a long distance. He won acclaim in Canada for his steady hand as central bank governor between 2008 and 2013, acting quickly to slash interest rates and stave off the worst effects of the global financial contagion, while he later became the first non-Briton to lead the Bank of England (2013-20).
But a political run would come with its own distinct perils – not least the sagging popularity of the Liberals, currently languishing well behind Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in opinion polls. Present odds suggest that even if victorious in the Liberal Party leadership race, Carney probably wouldn’t have enough time to avert an election defeat, according to a leading mortgage consultant and commentator.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's resignation has sparked intense discussions about his legacy, especially regarding housing and mortgage policies. https://t.co/DIgjb27vbB
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) January 7, 2025
“I’m 100% sure we’re going to have a Conservative government by the fall. I just don’t know if it’ll be a landslide majority victory or a sluggish minority, battered and bruised,” Benjamin Sammut (pictured below) told Canadian Mortgage Professional.
Parliament has been prorogued, or suspended, by Trudeau until March 24. Still, “even if [Chrystia] Freeland, or Carney, or some other charismatic leader takes over the Liberals, I don’t think it’s a long enough period of time for the [party] to change its reputation,” he said.
“At best, you’re basically going to see how much of a headache they can cause for the Conservatives over the next few months. But I don’t think they’re going to overtake the Conservatives and win government again.”
How likely is Carney to win the race to lead the Liberals?
Polling this week, conducted by Ipsos with Global News, showed Freeland, the former finance minister whose resignation letter last month helped accelerate Trudeau’s downfall, garnered most enthusiasm among Canadians among potential Liberal candidates. Twenty-four per cent (24%) said they were very or fairly likely to vote Liberal with Freeland as leader, compared with 17% under Carney.
Even Carney’s near-impeccable reputation for strong economic stewardship may not be enough to make up enough lost ground for the Liberals, Sammut said. “Mark Carney is quite beloved with his track record in Canada and the UK but at the end of the day, he’s only going to have two and a half months to really lay out a platform, and Poilievre has been working on that for two years now,” he explained.
Revitalizing the Liberal brand could prove an insurmountable task, Sammut suggested, even for a prominent, well-regarded candidate. “It’s more the party that will paint them, rather than making the party look good.”
What might a Carney housing strategy look like?
In an opinion column for the Globe and Mail last year, Carney sketched out the urgent need for Canada to accelerate homebuilding in an environmentally sustainable way – noting Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC’s) projection that a deficit of about six million homes will emerge by 2030.
He emphasized the importance of building up, rather than out. “Focusing housing growth in cities and communities where there is existing infrastructure such as roads, water lines, libraries and community centres is faster, less costly and more climate-friendly,” he said.
That means legalizing density, eliminating unit maximums, abolishing parking minimums, and permitting taller buildings and more construction near transit lines, Carney said – while building homes to higher standards, and fostering greater innovation in home construction, should also be priorities.
Carney’s final proposal: “We should stop putting new housing in areas at high risk of worsening climate effects,” he wrote. “The most expensive home is the one we need to rebuild after extreme weather – just ask the thousands of Canadians faced with hundreds of millions of dollars in uninsured damages because of flooding in recent years.”
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