Housing remains a prominent concern – but the US president’s proposed tariffs and annexation agenda are dominating all other issues
Ontario voters head to the polls this week (February 27) to elect their next provincial government – and while housing remains a critical issue for scores of voters, the potentially devastating economic impact of Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs has emerged as by far the dominant talking point of the campaign.
Current premier Doug Ford (Conservatives), who’s bidding to win his third mandate on Thursday, has vowed to spend $40 billion to offset the impact of Trump’s tariffs, which are scheduled to take effect in March, while rivals Bonnie Crombie (Liberal Party) and Marit Stiles (New Democratic Party) have also heavily referenced the US threats while on the stump.
Housing has been a fierce talking point during the campaign – but its importance has been superseded entirely by Trump’s vows to introduce sweeping tariffs on Canadian imports and frequent references to making Canada the 51st US state, according to Rock Capital Mortgage principal broker Dwight Trafford (pictured top).
He told Canadian Mortgage Professional that Trump’s rhetoric had catapulted the US-Canada relationship to the forefront of voters’ minds as they prepare to vote on Thursday.
“Obviously the Conservatives have been in power for seven years and the Liberals and the NDP would be the first to point out that our housing market has not improved a whole lot during the seven years that Doug Ford is there,” he said.
“But the housing market and healthcare and a few other issues in Ontario that need to be looked at – none of those are on the front burner right now with what’s going on with the US. All those things are pushed to the back burner.”
Ontario would be among the provinces hardest hit by Trump’s threatened measures, which include a proposed 25% tariff on all Canadian goods crossing the border southwards except for energy, which would be levied at 10%.
As over 1 million Canadian mortgages renew in 2025, many homeowners brace for higher payments after securing low interest rates in previous years. A Royal LePage survey shows 57% expect increased costs, with many adjusting spending habits.https://t.co/bqnI3Izkuv
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) February 24, 2025
Housing market concerns ‘not front of mind’ for provincial leaders
Trafford said immediate concern about a looming threat from the US meant housing had been down the list of priorities for the next Ontario leader, even though affordability and supply crises are still at play.
“If we weren’t being threatened by a takeover from another country, I think there are things that they might implement. They would need the help of the federal government to do it. But because of what’s going on, I don’t think that’s what’s at the front of his mind, helping the housing market.”
That’s not to suggest Ontario’s party leaders aren’t committed to finding solutions to the housing challenges facing homeowners and buyers. But Trump’s proposed tariffs and apparent determination to annex Canada seem to have been a political gamechanger, according to Trafford.
“The only thing [Ford] cares about tomorrow is making sure that the Ontario economy keeps rolling in spite of all these tariffs. There is a positive coming out of this: it’s great to see all the premiers getting together, and we’re going to figure out a way to survive without the US,” he said.
“We need to be proactive rather than reactive and I’m seeing some of that, which is really nice for a change. We can’t be pushed around by another country. I think the United States thinks they can push us around, but we really can’t let them.”
Could housing priorities be shelved if Trump’s threats continue?
If Trump’s rhetoric on taking over Canada continues, it could have further implications for housing policy at both provincial and federal level, Trafford suggested.
That’s because Canada could feel compelled to beef up its military and strengthen its borders – reducing its room to manoeuvre on housing and other spending. “If we start building up our military there won’t be money left over to clean up housing issues. There won’t be money left over for a lot of things,” he said.
“Our whole immigration structure could change because if we’re going to build up our military, we need more people. This whole US thing is going to completely turn Canada on its head – and nothing will be the same going forward.”
Make sure to get all the latest news to your inbox on Canada’s mortgage and housing markets by signing up for our free daily newsletter here.
