'It's going to be a wild ride for the next 18 months'
Political upheaval in Ottawa. A new administration south of the border with all the chaos that a Trump presidency brings. Escalating fears of a huge trade war, averted – at least for now – by last-gasp talks between the US president and Canadian prime minister on Monday afternoon.
After the tumult of the COVID years and the inflation and rising-rates crises that followed, the mortgage industry could have been forgiven for hoping 2025 would bring calmer times. But while the drama and unpredictability of the last few weeks is unlikely to fade for the rest of the year, an Ontario-based brokerage co-founder and chief executive officer is calling for cool heads and a positive approach to the coming market.
Frances Hinojosa (pictured above), of Tribe Financial, told Canadian Mortgage Professional she held a “very optimistic” view of the mortgage market’s prospects for the year ahead, with 18 months of pent-up homebuyer demand and a wave of mortgage renewals presenting plenty of opportunity for brokers even amid economic uncertainty.
That should be mortgage professionals’ focus for 2025, she suggested, rather than the doom and gloom of the political and economic landscape. “I think as brokers, we can’t get distracted by the negativity and volatility that we’re probably going to see over the next year,” she said. “You have to stay intentional and focused on the opportunity to serve and help clients.
“There’s going to be plenty more opportunities this year than in any previous years to help consumers – which means more demand for solutions and advice pertaining to their mortgages and making sure they’re set moving forward.”
Economic outlook remains uncertain despite Trump-Trudeau deal
US president Donald Trump appeared to be pushing ahead with massive tariffs on Canadian imports until Monday afternoon, measures that Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists said could potentially trigger the biggest trade shock to the Canadian economy for nearly a century.
Trump agreed to put that plan on hold for 30 days after Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau said he would invest $200 million more in tackling organized crime and drugs, designate drug cartels as terrorists, and appoint a new fentanyl czar.
Canada and the United States have pulled back – at least temporarily – from the brink of an escalating trade war after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confirmed that planned tariffs on both sides of the border will be put on hold for 30 days.https://t.co/78ra06Qm0i
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) February 4, 2025
But the threats are still hovering over the Canadian economy, with the opening two weeks of Trump’s second presidency a stark reminder of the turbulence that dominated his first term.
“Even the threat of tariff policy acts as an uncertainty tax on Canadians and limits their ability to move forward with bold projects or even incremental economic decisions,” RBC’s Donald told The Globe and Mail.
Hinojosa said further drama was likely ahead despite Trump and Trudeau’s 11th-hour deal to give Canada a stay of execution on tariffs.
“Hold onto your hat – it’s going to be a wild ride for the next 18 months,” she said. “But I think if anything, brokers have proven themselves to be resilient and professional, and truly the voice of reason when it comes to consumers. Our professionalism and our advice are what’s going to shine through in the volatility that we’re going to see.
“The brokers that focus on opportunities and are solution-driven are the ones that are going to succeed in the market moving forward.”
‘Don’t run with the trends and get scared by the news’
The best advice mortgage professionals can give borrowers, Hinojosa said, is to stay grounded in their financial goals and their desired outcome – and stay focused on those targets even despite gathering economic storm clouds.
“Don’t run with the trends and get scared by the news because what happens today can change in six months, can change in a year,” she said. “What’s the most important thing for you today with your mortgage and what’s going to be the most important thing in the next year, five years, 10 years?
“Stay true to that goal – because that really is what’s going to matter most, and it’s going to make you strong against any sort of adverse effect because it’s grounded in what your goals are, and you’re sticking to it.”
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