CREB economist points to ongoing uncertainty, but says current activity remains ahead of past
Calgary’s home sales fell again last month, as growing economic uncertainty appears to be making buyers more hesitant.
The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) reported a 19% year-over-year decline in home sales for March, with a total of 2,159 properties sold across all categories.
The slowdown was felt across the board, though it was most pronounced in higher-density housing types like apartments and row houses. The shift comes as concerns around economic volatility and global trade tensions weigh on consumer confidence.
“It is not a surprise to see a pullback in sales given the uncertainty,” said CREB chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “However, it is important to note that sales still remain stronger than anything reported throughout 2015 to 2020, where our economy faced significant economic challenges and job loss.”
At the same time, inventory is building, a change that could reshape Calgary’s market dynamics after four years of being tilted heavily in favour of sellers.
More than 4,000 new listings came to market in March, pushing the sales-to-new-listings ratio down to 54%, a level that CREB says supports further inventory growth. Total residential inventory stood at 5,154 units, with months of supply rising to 2.4 — still low by historical standards, but a clear sign of shifting conditions.
The increase in supply appears to be easing price pressure, following several years of steep gains. Calgary’s unadjusted residential benchmark price reached $592,500 in March — steady both compared to February and to the same time last year.
Prices for detached and semi-detached homes remain consistent with previous peaks and continue to edge higher, according to the report. However, apartment and row-style properties remain slightly below the highs seen last year.
Tariffs weigh on buyer confidence
Behind the sales slowdown is a broader economic picture that’s become harder to ignore. Rising concerns over the impact of US tariffs, and a potential recession, are beginning to seep into local housing trends, according to Tony Stillo, director of Canada Economics at Oxford Economics.
“Tariffs are going to hit the targeted sectors obviously, but they’re big enough that they’re going to cause a broad recession,” Stillo said in an interview with BNN Bloomberg. “When you have a broad downturn in the economy, all sectors get hit and housing is not immune.”
Stillo said the market has already started to soften, with buyers becoming more cautious in recent months.
“We’ve seen buyers get nervous, they’re worried about their jobs, worried about their income security, and they’re pulling back,” he said.
He also pointed to the rise in listings as a potential sign of stress, noting that some sellers may be listing due to financial pressure.
“There’s potentially more distressed sales; people that have to sell.”
Though Stillo expects housing prices to drop by another five percent nationally, he also pointed out that lower interest rates and ongoing housing supply constraints could help prevent a larger correction.
Read next: Tackling US tariffs amid a housing crisis: like 'trying to catch a falling knife'
“Keep in mind, there’s a floor to this,” he said. “We do have lower interest rates, they’re stable, we have looser lending guidelines – things that will prop up [the market].”
Still, affordability may not improve even if prices edge lower.
“The lower prices are going to offset what are probably going to be lower incomes and a little bit less confidence, so we’re looking for affordability actually to stay roughly stable,” Stillo said.
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