What are the BC housing market's prospects this year?

The British Columbia housing market will be labouring under sluggish conditions for much of this year, although a resurgence is also likely to take place in 2024, according to the province’s top housing industry group.

“While we are still waiting on a broader economic downturn, the housing market immediately felt the impact of elevated interest rates,” the British Columbia Real Estate Association said.

Residential sales activity in BC is anticipated to slow down by 7.1% annually for a total of 75,150 transactions this year.

The market will see a “strong rebound” soon after, with a 23.8% annual increase for a total of 93,025 home sales in 2024.

“A slowing economy and still elevated mortgage rates are expected to keep housing activity lower than normal through much of 2023,” said Brendon Ogmundson, chief economist at BCREA. “However, we expect a strong recovery, boosted by an expected decline in mortgage rates and record high immigration that will carry significant momentum into 2024.”

Discover what is the mortgage rates forecast for 2024 with this article.

Canada is looking to welcome as much as 1.5 million new immigrants over the next three years — new arrivals who could be looking at greater affordability in BC.

“The abrupt shift in market conditions has meant that prices have come down despite low inventory, falling from peak levels through the spring before stabilizing toward the end of last year,” the BCREA said. “While we expect MLS average prices to trend relatively flat this year, they will be lower than peak values of 2022. Consequently, year-over-year comparisons will register negative for much of 2023, which will likely result in negative annual price growth even if monthly prices begin to recover as expected later this year.”