Broker believes volatility caused by Trump tariffs will eventually benefit housing and mortgage sectors
While many mortgage brokers are concerned about recent moves by the Trump administration, which have led to market turmoil and interest rate volatility, there are others who are optimistic that the moves could improve the housing market long term.
One Seattle-based mortgage veteran believes the recent turmoil will eventually level out, providing affordability and stability.
Shane Kidwell (pictured top), CEO of Dwell Mortgage, admits the short-term effects of the recent tariffs on countries worldwide have caused a tough stretch. However, he believes that once the volatility settles, the housing market will benefit in the long run.
“I would relate it to setting a destination on your GPS,” Kidwell told Mortgage Professional America. “If every time your GPS recalculated, that became a devastating, life-altering moment, it would be really hard to be successful, long-term, in high commission sales. I like to keep the end goal as my North Star, and so as long as my destination doesn't change, which is maximizing affordability for my clients and my employees, I just keep looking at that. How do I maximize affordability?”
Kidwell believes the moves the US government is making are necessary steps to achieve overall economic health, which will carry over into the mortgage market.
“I like to ask myself, if my home were the federal government, how would I operate in this time?” he said. “And like it or not, we are $36 trillion in debt. And so, if I were looking at my family and my home and I was in debt 30 years of wages and debt, how would I behave? And I would be behaving very differently than if I had no debt. I'd be living off rice and beans. I would be cutting every corner.”
One goal of the Trump administration's tariffs was to bring countries to the negotiating table. While some tariffs are being paused to continue negotiations, others may be implemented as the administration continues Section 232 investigations into copper, lumber, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.
Trump’s tariff pause, reducing duties to 10% for 90 days, caused a 7% stock market surge and lower mortgage rates. However, experts warn that ongoing uncertainty could keep the housing market in a holding pattern.https://t.co/fyeAsYmJMx
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) April 10, 2025
However, negotiations continue between the US and countries worldwide to reach trade agreements. Kidwell believes that once those deals begin to take place, they will positively affect the market.
“I think we have a very stable economy,” Kidwell said. “And I think that that will start to show as trade deals come together. I feel like we'll have some short-term, whether it's true instability or just the perception of instability. I think in six to 12 months, we'll start to see that stabilize. We'll start to see costs come down. Some of our day-to-day goods costs will go down.
“And as soon as we see that, our consumers will start to feel some relief, and that'll begin to bring some confidence back into the markets.”
“I want to see our country win”
Kidwell spoke to Mortgage Professional America after Trump’s election victory in November. He was optimistic that the new administration would be able to improve the housing market.
He hopes these market shakeups will result in a more balanced housing market, improving affordability. He feels as if previous efforts to improve the market haven’t succeeded.
“There are a lot of levers you can pull to try to get things to be better,” Kidwell said. “The levers they’ve pulled to try to make it work haven’t been successful.”
He believes that to improve things for future generations, some short-term bumps in the road may be required to force a market correction.
“If I came home and told my wife I lost my job, I lost my office, I lost my business, and I'm dead broke, the most foolish thing I could do would be to act like nothing had changed,” Kidwell said. “And yeah, maybe my daughter's not going to Disneyland that year, but that also means I'm leaving a legacy for my daughter of wealth, not debt.”
A firefighter for 12 years prior to his lending career, Kidwell hopes that if the housing market balances out and affordability improves, it will improve conditions for all Americans.
“I want to I want to see our country win,” Kidwell said. “I want to see people thrive. I want to see the housing market be more balanced. And in many areas, like Washington, California, it has not been a balanced housing market. Although low interest rates were great in some respects for affordability, they drove prices up so that a union fireman couldn't afford to live in the town I supported.
“And I fundamentally don't feel like that's helping a fireman build a legacy for his family.”
Focus on what can be controlled
Kidwell’s message to both his employees and his clients is not to get wrapped up in the day-to-day movements of the market and instead focus on long-term goals. He stresses that they should not worry about things beyond their immediate control.
“So often we sit back, and we watch the stock ticker and watch rates go down and back up,” Kidwell said. “It’s the market’s biggest day in the last two years, then the worst day in the last two years. That has zero to do with what I can control.”
That’s not to say that Kidwell doesn’t believe there won’t be some tough market conditions to work through over the next few months.
“I think the next six months are going to be challenging,” Kidwell said. “I think if we all focus on what we can control, we’d be happier and healthier, and we would give these leaders some space to navigate some really tough times with a little bit more grace. Obviously, there are areas that aren't going well. We need to focus on those.”
Kidwell believes brokers can help navigate the tough stretches by being flexible and offering customers solutions that fit their needs.
“I feel very confident in the broker space,” Kidwell said. “With our flexibility to adjust interest rates and adjust compensation, we can be nimble as a company. I can lower my compensation to make affordability better in a market where affordability is lacking.
“In the mid-term, I’m cautiously optimistic. I think in the long term, I’m really optimistic that home affordability and business affordability will improve pretty significantly.”
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